Analysts Just Shaved Their Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) Forecasts Dramatically

One thing we could say about the analysts on Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Adaptive Biotechnologies' seven analysts is for revenues of US$177m in 2024, which would reflect a modest 3.9% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are presumed to reduce, shrinking 15% per share from last year to US$1.32. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$225m and losses of US$1.11 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Adaptive Biotechnologies

The consensus price target fell 17% to US$7.17, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Adaptive Biotechnologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 23% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Adaptive Biotechnologies is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Adaptive Biotechnologies.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Adaptive Biotechnologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.