ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.

NasdaqGS:ACAD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.1b

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Valuation

Is ACAD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ACAD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$27.85
Fair Value
32.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ACAD ($18.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($27.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ACAD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ACAD?

Key metric: As ACAD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ACAD. This is calculated by dividing ACAD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ACAD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.2x
EarningsUS$128.51m
Market CapUS$3.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ACAD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ACAD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.7x
CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals
19.4x16.7%US$2.9b
ALKS Alkermes
13.3x-10.7%US$5.1b
ADMA ADMA Biologics
55.9x26.7%US$3.9b
HALO Halozyme Therapeutics
18.3x17.3%US$7.1b
ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
24.2x23.8%US$3.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ACAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the peer average (26.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ACAD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROIV Roivant Sciences
1.8x-56.1%US$8.10b
AGIO Agios Pharmaceuticals
2.9x-29.8%US$1.92b
INBX Inhibrx Biosciences
0.1x-135.7%US$178.20m
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics
5x-13.8%US$64.17m
ACAD 24.2xIndustry Avg. 17.4xNo. of Companies10PE020406080100+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ACAD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ACAD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ACAD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.2x
Fair PE Ratio27.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ACAD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ACAD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.69
US$24.95
+33.5%
26.8%US$39.00US$11.00n/a19
Jan ’26US$18.35
US$25.11
+36.8%
26.3%US$39.00US$11.00n/a19
Dec ’25US$16.32
US$25.11
+53.8%
26.3%US$39.00US$11.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$14.81
US$25.11
+69.5%
26.2%US$39.00US$12.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$15.30
US$25.11
+64.1%
26.2%US$39.00US$12.00n/a19
Sep ’25US$16.58
US$25.11
+51.4%
26.2%US$39.00US$12.00n/a19
Aug ’25US$18.99
US$27.20
+43.2%
23.5%US$39.00US$12.00n/a20
Jul ’25US$16.04
US$27.35
+70.5%
23.0%US$39.00US$13.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$15.10
US$27.16
+79.9%
23.6%US$39.00US$13.00n/a19
May ’25US$17.05
US$28.79
+68.9%
19.8%US$39.00US$13.00n/a20
Apr ’25US$18.26
US$29.31
+60.5%
20.6%US$39.00US$13.00n/a20
Mar ’25US$24.01
US$33.50
+39.5%
21.6%US$44.00US$13.00n/a20
Feb ’25US$26.14
US$34.25
+31.0%
19.8%US$42.00US$14.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$31.31
US$33.61
+7.3%
20.7%US$42.00US$14.00US$18.3518
Dec ’24US$22.60
US$32.75
+44.9%
20.7%US$42.00US$14.00US$16.3216
Nov ’24US$22.92
US$31.25
+36.3%
22.6%US$42.00US$13.00US$14.8116
Oct ’24US$20.84
US$31.13
+49.4%
23.5%US$42.00US$13.00US$15.3015
Sep ’24US$27.79
US$31.13
+12.0%
23.5%US$42.00US$13.00US$16.5815
Aug ’24US$28.94
US$30.47
+5.3%
26.0%US$42.00US$12.00US$18.9915
Jul ’24US$23.95
US$24.54
+2.5%
22.5%US$36.00US$12.00US$16.0416
Jun ’24US$23.90
US$23.04
-3.6%
21.4%US$33.00US$12.00US$15.1017
May ’24US$21.75
US$22.76
+4.7%
21.5%US$33.00US$12.00US$17.0517
Apr ’24US$18.82
US$22.37
+18.9%
21.4%US$33.00US$12.00US$18.2619
Mar ’24US$20.92
US$19.65
-6.1%
20.1%US$28.00US$10.00US$24.0119
Feb ’24US$18.93
US$18.74
-1.0%
23.0%US$27.00US$10.00US$26.1419
Jan ’24US$15.92
US$18.39
+15.5%
22.9%US$25.00US$10.00US$31.3118
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
US$24.95
Fair Value
25.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/30 23:25
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/30 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. is covered by 37 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joel BeattyBaird
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Esther Lannie HongBerenberg