Universal Music Group N.V.

OTCPK:UMGN.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$46.5b

Universal Music Group Valuation

Is UMGN.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UMGN.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UMGN.F ($25.42) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($26.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UMGN.F is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UMGN.F?

Key metric: As UMGN.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UMGN.F. This is calculated by dividing UMGN.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UMGN.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.8x
Earnings€1.55b
Market Cap€44.57b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UMGN.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UMGN.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average99.5x
SPOT Spotify Technology
127.3x29.8%US$91.8b
FWON.K Formula One Group
84.3x18.0%US$23.3b
LYV Live Nation Entertainment
148.6x26.9%US$30.5b
WMG Warner Music Group
37.6x20.7%US$15.9b
UMGN.F Universal Music Group
28.8x6.5%US$44.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UMGN.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x) compared to the peer average (99.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UMGN.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Entertainment Industry?

8 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
DDI DoubleDown Interactive
4.7x0.3%US$523.78m
IH iHuman
5xn/aUS$92.17m
RDBX Redbox Entertainment
1.2x-121.8%US$76.65m
GMM Global Mofy AI
0.5xn/aUS$9.58m
UMGN.F 28.8xIndustry Avg. 17.3xNo. of Companies8PE020406080100+
8 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UMGN.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x) compared to the US Entertainment industry average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UMGN.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UMGN.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.8x
Fair PE Ratio23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UMGN.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UMGN.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$25.42
US$28.19
+10.9%
16.5%US$37.76US$15.73n/a19
Dec ’25US$24.24
US$29.18
+20.4%
16.1%US$38.07US$16.31n/a19
Nov ’25US$25.68
US$29.13
+13.4%
16.0%US$37.93US$16.25n/a19
Oct ’25US$25.90
US$30.31
+17.0%
16.3%US$36.73US$16.69n/a18
Sep ’25US$26.99
US$30.73
+13.9%
15.8%US$36.55US$16.61n/a19
Aug ’25US$23.12
US$30.33
+31.2%
15.8%US$35.61US$16.19n/a19
Jul ’25US$28.99
US$32.38
+11.7%
17.1%US$39.64US$12.85n/a18
Jun ’25US$31.63
US$32.94
+4.1%
16.2%US$39.10US$13.03n/a20
May ’25US$29.60
US$31.83
+7.5%
16.9%US$38.54US$12.85n/a20
Apr ’25US$30.01
US$31.43
+4.7%
16.9%US$37.59US$12.89n/a20
Mar ’25US$29.71
US$31.43
+5.8%
18.3%US$37.83US$12.97n/a20
Feb ’25US$29.54
US$30.74
+4.0%
17.6%US$35.78US$13.01n/a20
Jan ’25US$28.86
US$30.27
+4.9%
17.8%US$37.37US$13.19n/a20
Dec ’24US$27.19
US$29.68
+9.2%
17.8%US$35.89US$13.05US$24.2420
Nov ’24US$24.41
US$28.77
+17.9%
18.0%US$34.87US$12.68US$25.6819
Oct ’24US$26.09
US$27.56
+5.7%
20.4%US$34.89US$11.63US$25.9019
Sep ’24US$24.61
US$28.02
+13.9%
19.7%US$34.00US$12.06US$26.9919
Aug ’24US$25.61
US$28.02
+9.4%
19.7%US$34.00US$12.06US$23.1219
Jul ’24US$23.20
US$27.16
+17.1%
20.5%US$33.84US$12.01US$28.9918
Jun ’24US$20.30
US$27.90
+37.4%
20.1%US$35.14US$12.08US$31.6319
May ’24US$21.80
US$27.98
+28.3%
19.5%US$35.27US$12.13US$29.6020
Apr ’24US$25.22
US$28.12
+11.5%
18.2%US$35.78US$11.93US$30.0120
Mar ’24US$23.75
US$27.74
+16.8%
19.7%US$38.16US$11.66US$29.7120
Feb ’24US$25.51
US$27.96
+9.6%
19.7%US$39.05US$11.93US$29.5422
Jan ’24US$24.02
US$26.31
+9.5%
19.9%US$36.87US$11.59US$28.8622
Dec ’23US$23.50
US$24.72
+5.2%
18.6%US$32.08US$11.03US$27.1922

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 23:45
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Universal Music Group N.V. is covered by 29 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
JULIEN ROCHBarclays
William PackerBNP Paribas Exane
Adrien de Saint HilaireBofA Global Research