Grindr Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
Grindr is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 20.8% and 13.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 21.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 60.6% in 3 years.
Key information
20.8%
Earnings growth rate
21.82%
EPS growth rate
| Interactive Media and Services earnings growth | 12.2% |
| Revenue growth rate | 13.8% |
| Future return on equity | 60.63% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 05 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 27
GRND: Expanded Buyback And Stable Long Term Outlook Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have kept their $18.00 price target for Grindr unchanged, citing a largely consistent view on long term revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, with only minor adjustments to discount rate assumptions. What's in the News Grindr for Equality launched "Out in the Open," a new content series focused on chemsex, created with UK-based LGBTQ+ peer-support non-profit You Are Loved and other partners.Narrative Update • Apr 13
GRND: Expanded Buyback And 2026 Revenue Outlook Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts now see Grindr's fair value holding at $18.00, with only modest tweaks to assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. This supports a largely unchanged price target view.Narrative Update • Mar 29
GRND: Expanded Buyback Authorization And 2026 Revenue Outlook Will Support Upside
Analysts have kept their Grindr price target steady at $18.00, reflecting largely unchanged assumptions on growth, profitability, and future P/E, while making only minor tweaks to the discount rate in their valuation work. What's in the News Grindr Inc.
New Narrative • Mar 13
AI And Health Service Execution Risks Will Constrain Margins Yet Support A Modest Upside
Catalysts About Grindr Grindr operates a global LGBTQ+ social networking platform that monetizes primarily through paid subscriptions, advertising, and emerging health related services. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 10
GRND: Expanded Buyback And 2026 Outlook Will Underpin Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grindr from $21.75 to $18.00. This reflects updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E that point to a more conservative outlook on the stock's fair value.
New Narrative • Feb 26
Future AI Features And Young User Base Will Drive A Powerful Long Term Upside Narrative
Catalysts About Grindr Grindr operates a global social networking app focused on connections for gay and bi men, monetized through subscriptions and advertising. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Feb 24
GRND: Cancelled Takeover And Refined Assumptions Will Support Future Upside
Analysts now set their fair value estimate for Grindr at $21.75 per share, with only minor model adjustments to the discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E supporting a slightly refined price target framework. What's in the News Tiga Investments, Big Timber Holdings, Longview Capital Group and related entities, along with James Fu Bin Lu and Zage George Raymond III, submitted a non binding proposal to acquire Grindr Inc.Narrative Update • Feb 10
GRND: Cancelled Take Private Proposal Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have kept their price target for Grindr steady at US$21.75, with only minimal tweaks to assumptions such as discount rate, long term revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. This reflects largely unchanged views on the company’s valuation drivers.Narrative Update • Jan 27
GRND: Share Repurchases And Cancelled Take Private Proposal Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have maintained their fair value estimate for Grindr at US$21.75 per share, with only slight tweaks to the discount rate and long term P/E inputs. This reflects steady underlying assumptions rather than a material shift in the thesis.Narrative Update • Jan 10
GRND: Share Repurchases And Cancelled Take Private Proposal Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have kept their fair value estimate for Grindr steady at US$21.75 per share, with only minor tweaks to inputs such as the discount rate and assumed future P/E. These changes reflect small refinements to their valuation framework rather than a shift in their overall view.Narrative Update • Dec 23
GRND: Share Repurchases Will Support Stronger Future Earnings Power
Analysts have nudged their price target on Grindr slightly higher to 21.75 dollars, citing marginal improvements in the company’s discount rate assumptions and long term profitability outlook that support maintaining a robust multiple on future earnings. What's in the News Shareholders ended talks on a planned 3.5 billion dollar take private deal, with the special committee citing concerns over financing certainty after initially reviewing a leveraged bid backed by a 1.0 billion dollar term loan and up to 100 million dollars in new equity (company filings).Narrative Update • Dec 09
GRND: Share Repurchases And Canceled Takeover Will Support Higher Future Price
Narrative Update Analysts have modestly refined their assumptions on Grindr, resulting in a largely unchanged fair value estimate of $21.75 per share. A slightly lower discount rate and adjusted forward valuation expectations largely offset each other in their updated model.Narrative Update • Nov 25
GRND: Upcoming Buyout Offer Will Drive Shares Toward Higher Levels
Narrative Update on Grindr: Analyst Price Target Adjustment Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Grindr from $22.25 to $21.75 per share, citing modest shifts in financial forecasts and valuation metrics. What's in the News Grindr Inc.Seeking Alpha • Nov 24
Grindr: Payer Growth And Privatization Potential
Summary Grindr stands out among dating app stocks, delivering robust growth and monetization despite sector headwinds and a 20% YTD share price decline. GRND's paid user base grew 17% year-over-year, outpacing peers like Match and Bumble, with new features driving double-digit payer growth and engagement. Valuation remains attractive at 12.2x EV/FY26 EBITDA, with a potential $18/share take-private offer providing additional upside for investors. I reiterate a buy rating on GRND, highlighting its superior growth, expanding margins, and unique catalysts as reasons to stay long and buy the dip. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Nov 07
GRND: Buyout Proposal And Margin Gains Will Drive Shares Higher
Analysts have slightly reduced their fair value estimate for Grindr from $22.75 to $22.25 per share. This change is attributed to diminished revenue growth forecasts, which are partially offset by improved profit margin expectations.Analysis Article • Aug 14
Grindr Inc.'s (NYSE:GRND) Stock Retreats 26% But Revenues Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
NYSE:GRND 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Grindr's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Narrative Update • Aug 08
Emerging Markets And AI Will Unlock Future Opportunities
Grindr's price target has been revised downward to $23.75, primarily driven by a decline in net profit margin despite a modest uptick in revenue growth expectations. What's in the News Grindr reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance, projecting 26% or greater revenue growth based on strong user trends and second quarter performance.Analysis Article • Jul 22
Grindr Inc.'s (NYSE:GRND) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 84% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights The projected fair value for Grindr is US$36.46 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...New Narrative • May 05
Rapid Product Launches And Global Expansion Will Create Future Opportunities
Rapid product innovation and global brand expansion drive strong growth, enhancing revenue and market positioning.Analysis Article • May 04
Investors Appear Satisfied With Grindr Inc.'s (NYSE:GRND) Prospects As Shares Rocket 35%
The Grindr Inc. ( NYSE:GRND ) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 35%. The...Seeking Alpha • Mar 07
Grindr: Still Growing, But Deceleration Is A Good Time To Pause On This Investment (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Shares of Grindr dropped ~15% after reporting Q4 results, with investors reacting harshly to a slowdown in paid user adds and a slight margin pullback. The company's FY25 outlook also calls for a 10+ point deceleration in revenue growth to 24%, though we have to take this in context against the broader dating app industry. Grindr still maintains a healthy growth premium over its peers, with both Bumble and Match recently hitting negative revenue comps. Still, Grindr looks expensive at ~20x forward revenue. I'm taking the opportunity to reduce my position, but would add back at ~$12.50 (16x adjusted EBITDA). Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 16
Grindr: AI Innovation Grinds Higher; Increase Price Target To $22/Share
Summary Grindr expects revenue growth of 32-33% for 2024, driven by strong direct ad sales and subscriptions, maintaining an adj. EBITDA margin of at least 42%. The company redeemed public and private warrants, increasing stock float, which may attract institutional investors and reduce overhang over time. GRND's focus on product innovation and AI integration is expected to enhance platform stickiness and ARPPU growth, with a new target price of $22/share. Key new products like AI-powered chat summaries, A-List, Heat Map, and Travel Pass differentiate GRND from competitors and support its long-term valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 25
Investors Should Be Encouraged By Grindr's (NYSE:GRND) Returns On Capital
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Ideally, a...Seeking Alpha • Jan 15
Grindr: How AI Is Poised To Become The Dating World's Ultimate Wingman
Summary Grindr's investment in AI aims to enhance user experience, increase pricing power, and drive revenue growth, positioning it as a leader in the LGBTQ dating app market. The AI agent feature could significantly boost GRND's revenue, with an estimated 3% and 5% upside for 2025 and 2026, respectively. GRND's employee-centric model and innovative approach attract top talent, further solidifying its competitive edge in the global internet sector. Potential regulatory risks and AI compliance issues could impact GRND's revenue outlook, but the company remains well-positioned to capitalize on the growing LGBTQ economy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 18
Grindr: The Untapped Value Of The Overlooked Rainbow Economy
Summary Grindr is the largest LGBTQ app globally, with significant user engagement and ARPU potential, making it an attractive investment with a $16/share target. GRND's predictable subscription-based revenue model and industry consolidation drive ARPU growth, positioning it favorably compared to traditional dating apps like Tinder and Bumble. Increasing broker coverage and investor interest in the LGBTQ vertical will likely boost fund flow and investment in GRND, enhancing its market position. Non-membership services in e-commerce, healthcare, and lifestyle present long-term growth opportunities, potentially transforming GRND into a super-app for the LGBTQ community. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 17
Grindr Continues To Outmuscle The Competition
Summary Grindr has outperformed competitors like Match and Bumble, with shares up over 40% YTD due to strong user growth and high revenue generation. Grindr's brand recognition, feature innovation, and international growth opportunities distinguish it from generalist dating apps, driving its market momentum. With higher EBITDA margins than peers and a compelling valuation, I'm setting a price target of $16 for Grindr, or ~30% above current levels. Stay long on Grindr to capitalize on its continued market share gains and robust financial performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Aug 21
Why The 21% Return On Capital At Grindr (NYSE:GRND) Should Have Your Attention
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Jul 03
Grindr: Expensive, But Growth Is Lapping Peers
Summary Grindr stock has surged nearly 40% year to date, with impressive user growth rates and higher EBITDA margins compared to peers. Grindr's user growth and revenue growth outperform Match and Bumble, even though the company spends a negligible amount on sales and marketing, especially relative to peers. Grindr's recent uptick in paid users and ARPU is attributed to premium subscription offerings, improved chat features, and upcoming new features. Though expensive, Grindr's premium growth rates will continue to drive more upside for the stock. Initiating the stock at a buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 21
Grindr: Close To Fully Valued Despite Attractive Growth Prospects
Summary The company has leveraged the strength of its brand to demonstrate strong revenue growth. Margins are forecasted to remain above 40%, while its balance sheet health is expected to improve. However, increased competition and execution risks related to monetization make me conclude that shares are close to fully valued. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • May 06
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Grindr (NYSE:GRND)
If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'd want to identify a...Analysis Article • Apr 01
Market Participants Recognise Grindr Inc.'s (NYSE:GRND) Revenues Pushing Shares 25% Higher
Grindr Inc. ( NYSE:GRND ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 25% after a shaky period beforehand...Seeking Alpha • Mar 15
Grindr: Impressive Growth, But Greater Losses
Summary Grindr's stock has increased by 87.97% since my first article, but is still below its peak value. The company has improved its FY2023 top line results by 33% YoY, but has also increased its losses. Grindr aims to extend its app's features and functionality, but faces competition and costly warrants until 2027. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 716 | 159 | 242 | 243 | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 616 | 130 | 202 | 192 | 3 |
| 12/31/2026 | 531 | 104 | 168 | 155 | 5 |
| 12/31/2025 | 440 | 85 | 133 | 142 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 412 | -49 | 139 | 146 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 385 | -56 | 116 | 120 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 363 | -95 | 93 | 98 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 345 | -131 | 90 | 95 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 319 | -52 | 74 | 78 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 300 | -77 | 53 | 58 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 279 | -32 | 44 | 48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 260 | -56 | 32 | 36 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 242 | -6 | 32 | 37 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 222 | -10 | 32 | 38 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 207 | -37 | 39 | 45 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 195 | 1 | 45 | 51 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 186 | 2 | 47 | 52 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 173 | 9 | 54 | 59 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 162 | 15 | 50 | 54 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 146 | 5 | 31 | 34 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 104 | -13 | 23 | 26 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 109 | 8 | 36 | 38 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: GRND's forecast earnings growth (20.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: GRND's earnings (20.8% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.4% per year).
High Growth Earnings: GRND's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: GRND's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: GRND's revenue (13.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: GRND's Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years time (60.6%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 12:51 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Grindr Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Andrew Boone | Citizens JMP Securities, LLC |
| Nicholas Jones | Citizens JMP Securities, LLC |
| Eric Sheridan | Goldman Sachs |