Earnings Miss: comScore, Inc. Missed EPS And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that comScore, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCOR) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.6% to US$6.90 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.86 per share on revenues of US$89m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from comScore's three analysts is for revenues of US$368.4m in 2026. This reflects a credible 2.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. comScore is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.61 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$370.6m and US$0.64 per share in losses. While there's been no material change to the revenue estimates, there's been a pretty clear upgrade to earnings estimates, with the analysts expecting a per-share profit compared to previous expectations of a loss. So it seems like the latest results have led to a significant increase in sentiment for comScore.

See our latest analysis for comScore

The average the analysts price target fell 12% to US$7.50, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic comScore analyst has a price target of US$10.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. For example, we noticed that comScore's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 2.1% growth to the end of 2026 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.0% per year. Although comScore's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are still bearish on the business, forecasting it to grow slower than the broader industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect comScore to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that comScore's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of comScore's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for comScore going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for comScore that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.