Is AdTheorent Holding Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTH) Trading At A 49% Discount?

Key Insights

• AdTheorent Holding Company's estimated fair value is US$2.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of US$1.51 suggests AdTheorent Holding Company is potentially 49% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 22% lower than AdTheorent Holding Company's analyst price target of US$3.79

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of AdTheorent Holding Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTH) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for AdTheorent Holding Company

Is AdTheorent Holding Company Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$18.3m	US$12.6m	US$12.1m	US$14.5m	US$13.7m	US$13.3m	US$13.2m	US$13.1m	US$13.2m	US$13.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -5.19%	Est @ -2.96%	Est @ -1.41%	Est @ -0.32%	Est @ 0.44%	Est @ 0.98%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.6%	US$17.2	US$11.1	US$10.0	US$11.2	US$10.0	US$9.1	US$8.4	US$7.8	US$7.4	US$7.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$99m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$13m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (6.6%– 2.2%) = US$309m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$309m÷ ( 1 + 6.6%)¹⁰= US$163m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$262m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$1.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at AdTheorent Holding Company as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.881. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for AdTheorent Holding Company

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For AdTheorent Holding Company, there are three further elements you should explore:

1. Risks: Be aware that AdTheorent Holding Company is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does ADTH's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.