FireFly Metals Valuation

Is MNXM.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MNXM.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MNXM.F ($0.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MNXM.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MNXM.F?

Key metric: As MNXM.F is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for MNXM.F. This is calculated by dividing MNXM.F's market cap by their current book value.
What is MNXM.F's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	3.6x
Book	AU$184.09m
Market Cap	AU$654.51m

MNXM.F key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-27.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does MNXM.F's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for MNXM.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2x
MUX McEwen Mining	0.9x	-106.9%	US$450.9m
CMCL Caledonia Mining	0.8x	93.0%	US$215.0m
GROY Gold Royalty	0.4x	171.6%	US$221.8m
GDRZ.F Gold Reserve	6x	n/a	US$235.1m
MNXM.F FireFly Metals	3.6x	55.9%	US$654.5m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: MNXM.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (2x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does MNXM.F's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

8 Companies	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
NEVD.Q Nevada Copper	0.1x	n/a	US$26.02m
VITF.F Victoria Gold	0.06x	n/a	US$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations	0.1x	n/a	US$5.42m
LITM Snow Lake Resources	0.2x	n/a	US$4.36m

8 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: MNXM.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (3.6x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MNXM.F's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MNXM.F PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	3.6x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MNXM.F's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MNXM.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$0.75	US$1.12 +49.3%	11.0%	US$1.28	US$0.99	n/a	5
Nov ’25	US$0.75	US$1.14 +52.4%	11.0%	US$1.28	US$0.99	n/a	4
Oct ’25	US$0.72	US$1.00 +37.7%	7.7%	US$1.10	US$0.90	n/a	4
Sep ’25	US$0.61	US$0.85 +39.1%	18.7%	US$1.06	US$0.67	n/a	4
Aug ’25	US$0.51	US$0.85 +66.4%	18.7%	US$1.06	US$0.67	n/a	4
Jul ’25	US$0.54	US$0.85 +57.1%	18.7%	US$1.06	US$0.67	n/a	4
Jun ’25	n/a	US$0.77 0%	14.6%	US$0.93	US$0.66	n/a	3
May ’25	n/a	US$0.82 0%	12.0%	US$0.92	US$0.72	n/a	2
Apr ’25	n/a	US$0.81 0%	12.0%	US$0.91	US$0.71	n/a	2
Mar ’25	n/a	US$0.86 0%	5.9%	US$0.91	US$0.81	n/a	2
Feb ’25	n/a	US$0.86 0%	5.9%	US$0.91	US$0.81	n/a	2
Jan ’25	n/a	US$0.86 0%	5.9%	US$0.91	US$0.81	n/a	2
Sep ’24	n/a	US$1.56 0%	16.1%	US$1.81	US$1.31	US$0.61	2
Aug ’24	US$0.38	US$1.56 +313.1%	16.1%	US$1.81	US$1.31	US$0.51	2
Jul ’24	n/a	US$1.57 0%	14.7%	US$1.81	US$1.34	US$0.54	2
Jun ’24	US$0.31	US$1.57 +399.9%	14.7%	US$1.81	US$1.34	n/a	2
May ’24	n/a	US$1.64 0%	11.6%	US$1.83	US$1.45	n/a	2
Apr ’24	n/a	US$1.65 0%	8.8%	US$1.80	US$1.51	n/a	2
Mar ’24	US$0.45	US$1.65 +267.0%	8.8%	US$1.80	US$1.51	n/a	2
Feb ’24	n/a	US$1.65 0%	8.8%	US$1.80	US$1.51	n/a	2
Jan ’24	n/a	US$1.73 0%	16.7%	US$2.02	US$1.44	n/a	2
Dec ’23	n/a	US$1.73 0%	16.7%	US$2.02	US$1.44	US$0.43	2
Nov ’23	n/a	US$1.73 0%	16.7%	US$2.02	US$1.44	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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