Fresnillo plc

OTCPK:FNLP.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$6.0b

Fresnillo Valuation

Is FNLP.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FNLP.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FNLP.F ($8.28) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($8.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FNLP.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FNLP.F?

Key metric: As FNLP.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FNLP.F. This is calculated by dividing FNLP.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FNLP.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.1x
EarningsUS$247.83m
Market CapUS$5.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FNLP.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FNLP.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.2x
CMC Commercial Metals
14.4x6.0%US$7.1b
TX Ternium
81.9x49.1%US$6.4b
RGLD Royal Gold
33.3xn/aUS$9.6b
X United States Steel
23.2x35.9%US$8.9b
FNLP.F Fresnillo
23.9x33.0%US$4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FNLP.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x) compared to the peer average (38.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FNLP.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.6xn/aUS$6.20m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
FNLP.F 24.1xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies7PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FNLP.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FNLP.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FNLP.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.1x
Fair PE Ratio30.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FNLP.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FNLP.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.28
US$10.47
+26.5%
13.2%US$14.26US$8.32n/a13
Nov ’25US$9.43
US$10.20
+8.2%
15.7%US$14.69US$8.32n/a13
Oct ’25US$8.46
US$9.43
+11.4%
17.1%US$14.11US$8.01n/a13
Sep ’25US$7.24
US$9.22
+27.4%
17.8%US$14.11US$7.84n/a13
Aug ’25US$7.65
US$9.29
+21.4%
18.7%US$14.11US$7.79n/a12
Jul ’25US$7.09
US$8.90
+25.5%
21.8%US$14.11US$7.08n/a12
Jun ’25US$7.75
US$8.85
+14.1%
22.2%US$14.11US$6.85n/a12
May ’25US$7.11
US$8.26
+16.2%
24.2%US$14.11US$6.09n/a12
Apr ’25US$6.05
US$7.48
+23.7%
32.0%US$14.47US$4.84n/a12
Mar ’25US$5.95
US$7.74
+30.1%
29.8%US$13.79US$4.83n/a12
Feb ’25US$6.65
US$7.96
+19.7%
29.9%US$13.79US$4.83n/a12
Jan ’25US$7.55
US$8.43
+11.7%
25.4%US$13.79US$4.62n/a12
Dec ’24US$7.74
US$8.33
+7.7%
25.9%US$13.79US$4.62n/a12
Nov ’24US$6.50
US$8.25
+26.9%
27.6%US$13.79US$4.12US$9.4312
Oct ’24US$6.55
US$8.75
+33.5%
26.2%US$14.42US$4.20US$8.4612
Sep ’24US$7.12
US$8.72
+22.5%
24.7%US$14.42US$4.20US$7.2414
Aug ’24US$7.50
US$9.21
+22.8%
22.2%US$14.60US$6.73US$7.6514
Jul ’24US$7.67
US$9.71
+26.6%
20.7%US$14.95US$7.54US$7.0914
Jun ’24US$8.43
US$9.80
+16.3%
20.1%US$14.95US$7.54US$7.7514
May ’24US$9.04
US$9.75
+7.8%
20.6%US$14.93US$7.35US$7.1114
Apr ’24US$9.28
US$9.70
+4.5%
19.6%US$14.41US$7.35US$6.0514
Mar ’24US$9.30
US$10.56
+13.5%
14.7%US$14.41US$8.66US$5.9515
Feb ’24US$10.18
US$10.71
+5.2%
14.8%US$14.65US$8.66US$6.6515
Jan ’24US$10.72
US$10.24
-4.5%
17.7%US$13.49US$7.54US$7.5516
Dec ’23US$10.98
US$9.85
-10.3%
20.2%US$15.43US$7.54US$7.7416
Nov ’23US$8.60
US$9.66
+12.4%
19.2%US$14.84US$7.54US$6.5016

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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