BHP Group Limited

OTCPK:BHPL.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$125.6b

BHP Group Valuation

Is BHPL.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BHPL.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BHPL.F ($24.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($38.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BHPL.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHPL.F?

Key metric: As BHPL.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BHPL.F. This is calculated by dividing BHPL.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BHPL.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.9x
EarningsUS$7.90b
Market CapUS$125.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHPL.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHPL.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.9x
MTRN Materion
27.8x27.4%US$2.1b
SCCO Southern Copper
24.3x6.4%US$73.5b
FCX Freeport-McMoRan
28x13.1%US$55.8b
LIN Linde
31.7x9.2%US$202.0b
BHPL.F BHP Group
15.9x6.1%US$200.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHPL.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the peer average (27.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHPL.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.5xn/aUS$4.55m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
PTEE.F Plaintree Systems
1.3xn/aUS$904.77k
BHPL.F 15.9xIndustry Avg. 15.4xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHPL.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHPL.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHPL.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.9x
Fair PE Ratio29.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHPL.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BHPL.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$24.20
US$29.32
+21.2%
6.9%US$31.91US$25.53n/a15
Dec ’25US$27.77
US$29.76
+7.2%
6.0%US$32.56US$26.15n/a15
Nov ’25US$28.75
US$30.33
+5.5%
7.1%US$34.40US$26.15n/a15
Oct ’25US$31.40
US$31.55
+0.5%
8.3%US$35.93US$26.46n/a15
Sep ’25US$27.85
US$31.07
+11.6%
8.0%US$35.93US$27.21n/a16
Aug ’25US$26.95
US$31.02
+15.1%
8.3%US$35.18US$26.91n/a16
Jul ’25US$28.75
US$30.91
+7.5%
8.3%US$35.09US$26.56n/a15
Jun ’25US$29.59
US$31.01
+4.8%
8.8%US$35.09US$26.56n/a14
May ’25US$27.50
US$30.65
+11.5%
8.6%US$34.47US$26.41n/a12
Apr ’25US$28.92
US$30.81
+6.5%
7.5%US$34.54US$27.56n/a16
Mar ’25US$29.78
US$30.87
+3.7%
7.2%US$34.40US$27.56n/a16
Feb ’25US$30.76
US$31.78
+3.3%
9.1%US$39.38US$28.39n/a15
Jan ’25US$35.20
US$31.41
-10.8%
10.6%US$37.75US$25.99n/a15
Dec ’24US$31.42
US$30.41
-3.2%
11.1%US$37.75US$25.99US$27.7715
Nov ’24US$28.30
US$29.87
+5.6%
9.7%US$37.77US$25.99US$28.7516
Oct ’24US$29.46
US$29.13
-1.1%
12.6%US$37.77US$23.31US$31.4016
Sep ’24US$29.83
US$28.97
-2.9%
12.0%US$37.77US$23.31US$27.8517
Aug ’24US$31.08
US$30.39
-2.2%
11.0%US$37.77US$24.73US$26.9517
Jul ’24US$30.51
US$30.70
+0.6%
10.8%US$37.77US$24.73US$28.7516
Jun ’24US$27.51
US$30.62
+11.3%
11.6%US$37.77US$24.75US$29.5918
May ’24US$29.28
US$30.80
+5.2%
11.6%US$37.77US$25.42US$27.5018
Apr ’24US$32.24
US$31.21
-3.2%
11.6%US$37.81US$23.96US$28.9217
Mar ’24US$31.82
US$30.99
-2.6%
11.1%US$37.81US$24.75US$29.7817
Feb ’24US$35.08
US$31.65
-9.8%
11.4%US$41.05US$26.88US$30.7618
Jan ’24US$30.11
US$29.58
-1.8%
10.6%US$36.90US$22.61US$35.2018
Dec ’23US$31.50
US$28.58
-9.3%
10.8%US$36.90US$22.61US$31.4218

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 07:25
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

BHP Group Limited is covered by 68 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Varun SikkaAlphaValue
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ayan GhoshAvior Capital Markets