BHP Group Limited

OTCPK:BHPL.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$131.5b

BHP Group Valuation

Is BHPL.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BHPL.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BHPL.F ($26.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($45.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BHPL.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BHPL.F?

Key metric: As BHPL.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BHPL.F. This is calculated by dividing BHPL.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BHPL.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.7x
EarningsUS$7.90b
Market CapUS$131.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BHPL.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BHPL.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.7x
MTRN Materion
31.6x27.4%US$2.3b
SCCO Southern Copper
26.3x6.2%US$81.4b
FCX Freeport-McMoRan
31.5x19.1%US$62.8b
SHW Sherwin-Williams
37.6x8.8%US$93.3b
BHPL.F BHP Group
16.7x5.0%US$201.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BHPL.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the peer average (31.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BHPL.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.6xn/aUS$5.52m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
BHPL.F 16.7xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BHPL.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BHPL.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BHPL.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.7x
Fair PE Ratio29x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BHPL.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BHPL.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$26.77
US$30.16
+12.7%
7.0%US$34.40US$25.99n/a15
Nov ’25US$28.75
US$30.33
+5.5%
7.1%US$34.40US$25.99n/a15
Oct ’25US$31.40
US$31.55
+0.5%
8.3%US$35.93US$26.46n/a15
Sep ’25US$27.85
US$31.07
+11.6%
8.0%US$35.93US$27.21n/a16
Aug ’25US$26.95
US$31.02
+15.1%
8.3%US$35.18US$26.91n/a16
Jul ’25US$28.75
US$30.91
+7.5%
8.3%US$35.09US$26.56n/a15
Jun ’25US$29.59
US$31.01
+4.8%
8.8%US$35.09US$26.56n/a14
May ’25US$27.50
US$30.65
+11.5%
8.6%US$34.47US$26.41n/a12
Apr ’25US$28.92
US$30.81
+6.5%
7.5%US$34.54US$27.56n/a16
Mar ’25US$29.78
US$30.87
+3.7%
7.2%US$34.40US$27.56n/a16
Feb ’25US$30.76
US$31.78
+3.3%
9.1%US$39.38US$28.39n/a15
Jan ’25US$35.20
US$31.41
-10.8%
10.6%US$37.75US$25.99n/a15
Dec ’24US$31.42
US$30.41
-3.2%
11.1%US$37.75US$25.99n/a15
Nov ’24US$28.30
US$29.87
+5.6%
9.7%US$37.77US$25.99US$28.7516
Oct ’24US$29.46
US$29.13
-1.1%
12.6%US$37.77US$23.31US$31.4016
Sep ’24US$29.83
US$28.97
-2.9%
12.0%US$37.77US$23.31US$27.8517
Aug ’24US$31.08
US$30.39
-2.2%
11.0%US$37.77US$24.73US$26.9517
Jul ’24US$30.51
US$30.70
+0.6%
10.8%US$37.77US$24.73US$28.7516
Jun ’24US$27.51
US$30.62
+11.3%
11.6%US$37.77US$24.75US$29.5918
May ’24US$29.28
US$30.80
+5.2%
11.6%US$37.77US$25.42US$27.5018
Apr ’24US$32.24
US$31.21
-3.2%
11.6%US$37.81US$23.96US$28.9217
Mar ’24US$31.82
US$30.99
-2.6%
11.1%US$37.81US$24.75US$29.7817
Feb ’24US$35.08
US$31.65
-9.8%
11.4%US$41.05US$26.88US$30.7618
Jan ’24US$30.11
US$29.58
-1.8%
10.6%US$36.90US$22.61US$35.2018
Dec ’23US$31.50
US$28.58
-9.3%
10.8%US$36.90US$22.61US$31.4218
Nov ’23US$24.30
US$27.24
+12.1%
8.8%US$32.65US$22.61US$28.3018

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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