Vulcan Materials Company Just Missed EPS By 32%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a good week for Vulcan Materials Company (NYSE:VMC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.4% to US$270. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$1.56, some 32% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$2.0b. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Vulcan Materials after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Vulcan Materials

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Vulcan Materials from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$8.10b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 9.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 39% to US$8.99. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.09b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.09 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$281, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vulcan Materials at US$325 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$169. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Vulcan Materials shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Vulcan Materials' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Vulcan Materials' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$281, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Vulcan Materials analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Vulcan Materials that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.