Smurfit Westrock Plc

NYSE:SW Stock Report

Market Cap: US$22.6b

Smurfit Westrock Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Smurfit Westrock is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 39.7% and 4.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 40.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.9% in 3 years.

Key information

39.7%

Earnings growth rate

40.36%

EPS growth rate

Packaging earnings growth23.7%
Revenue growth rate4.2%
Future return on equity10.95%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated11 Sep 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Sep 03

SW: Fair Value View Will Balance LatAm Expansion With Listing Shift

Analysts have lifted their price target for Smurfit Westrock to about $47.90 from $46.00, reflecting updated views on its fair value, discount rate assumptions, revenue growth outlook, profit margins and future P/E expectations. What’s in the News for Smurfit Westrock Smurfit Westrock is seeking acquisitions.
Narrative Update • Aug 13

SW: Containerboard Price Increases And Efficiency Actions Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Smurfit Westrock to $56.43 from $53.46, citing updates to fair value estimates, discount rate assumptions, revenue growth expectations, profit margin outlook, and future P/E inputs. What's in the News for Smurfit Westrock Containerboard producers, including Smurfit Westrock, announced price increases following Packaging Corporation of America's planned US$140 per ton hike.
Narrative Update • Jul 30

SW: Price Hikes And NYSE Listing Will Support Earnings Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target on Smurfit Westrock higher to about $66 from roughly $63, citing updated fair value work that reflects modest adjustments to the discount rate assumptions, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E expectations. What’s in the News for Smurfit Westrock Containerboard producers, including Smurfit Westrock, announced a US$140 per ton price increase effective September 1, 2026, in response to tight market conditions and higher freight and energy costs.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 29

Smurfit Westrock: Guidance Cuts Masks A Stronger 2027 Earnings Opportunity

Summary Smurfit Westrock revenue increased 1.1% to $8.03 billion, while adjusted EBITDA remained under pressure from higher freight, energy, and other input costs. Management lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook to $4.9–5.1 billion, broadly in line with our existing $5 billion forecast. We therefore see the market’s negative reaction as largely focused on near-term cost pressures rather than a material deterioration in the underlying investment case. Planned price increases in North America should help recover cost inflation, while further benefits from the WestRock integration have not yet been fully reflected in our estimates. Our unchanged 2026 assumptions imply a buy target. Nevertheless, we see valuation upside in 2027. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 16

SW: Single NYSE Listing And Q2 Earnings Outlook Will Support Upside

Analysts have revised their price target for Smurfit Westrock to $63.17 from $61.89, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E. These factors collectively support a modest upward adjustment in the estimated fair value.
Narrative Update • Jul 02

SW: Fair Value View Will Balance Margin Expansion With Listing Shift

Analysts have reduced their price target for Smurfit Westrock from $51.00 to $46.00 as they update their assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations. What's in the News for Smurfit Westrock Smurfit Westrock stock has trailed the broader materials sector recently, with Q1 2026 results showing a significant fall in net income and adjusted EBITDA, according to recent coverage.
Narrative Update • Jun 17

SW: LSE Delisting And NYSE Focus Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target on Smurfit Westrock slightly lower to about $53.46 from roughly $53.68. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, profit margins and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • Jun 02

SW: Single NYSE Listing And Lower P/E Assumptions Will Support Upside

Analysts have adjusted their fair value estimate for Smurfit Westrock to $61.89 from $67.91. This change reflects updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.
Narrative Update • May 18

SW: Quebec Mill Closures And Ongoing Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Smurfit Westrock slightly lower to about $53.68 from around $53.89, reflecting updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that largely offset one another. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Updated slightly lower to about $53.68 from around $53.89.
Narrative Update • May 02

SW: Quebec Mill Closures And Ongoing Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have trimmed their average Smurfit Westrock price target from about $55.13 to roughly $53.89, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock plans to permanently close one of the paper machines at its La Tuque, Quebec, mill, which has an annual production capacity of 127,000 tons of solid bleached sulfate paperboard, as part of efforts to refine its SBS portfolio and support the long term competitiveness of its paperboard operations (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Apr 17

SW: Cost Resets Through Quebec Closures And Reliable Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have adjusted Smurfit Westrock's price target from about $59.07 to $55.13. This change reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly different future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Apr 02

SW: Mill Closures And Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts now see Smurfit Westrock's fair value at about $67.91 per share, compared with roughly $66.89 previously, reflecting updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock plans to permanently close one of the paper machines at its La Tuque, Quebec, mill, which has an annual capacity of 127,000 tons of solid bleached sulfate, as part of efforts to address scale and cost challenges and support the long term competitiveness of its paperboard operations (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 19

SW: Cost Resets And Reliable Dividend Will Support Future Share Price Momentum

Analysts now place Smurfit Westrock's fair value at $59.07, up from $52.82, reflecting updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher assumed future P/E multiple. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock plans to permanently close one of the paper machines at its La Tuque, Quebec, mill, which has an annual production capacity of 127,000 tons of solid bleached sulfate paperboard, citing ongoing scale and cost challenges (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 04

SW: Mill Closures And Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside Potential

Analysts have updated their view on Smurfit Westrock with a higher price target, lifting fair value from $63.00 to about $66.89 as they factor in revised assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock plans to permanently close one of the paper machines at its La Tuque, Quebec, mill, which has an annual production capacity of 127,000 tons of solid bleached sulfate, citing ongoing scale and cost challenges in that asset (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Feb 18

SW: Fair Value View Will Weigh Quebec Closures Against Earnings Potential

Analysts have raised their price target on Smurfit WestRock from $44.50 to $51.00. They attribute the higher valuation mainly to a revised future P/E assumption of 20.49x, along with adjusted expectations for revenue growth and profit margins.
Analysis Article • Feb 06

Smurfit Westrock's (NYSE:SW) Shareholders Will Receive A Bigger Dividend Than Last Year

The board of Smurfit Westrock Plc ( NYSE:SW ) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $0.4523 on the 18th...
Narrative Update • Feb 04

SW: Dividend Visibility And Margin Resilience Will Support Future Share Price Momentum

Analysts have trimmed their price target on Smurfit Westrock by about €0.21, reflecting minor adjustments to fair value, the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions in their models. What's in the News The board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per ordinary share on Smurfit Westrock plc shares, with payment scheduled for March 18, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 17, 2026 (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 21

SW: Lower Impairment Charges And Margin Resilience Will Support Future Share Price Momentum

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Smurfit Westrock from about $53.73 to roughly $53.04, reflecting updated assumptions for slightly lower revenue growth and profit margins, along with a modestly higher future P/E multiple and a small adjustment to the discount rate. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock reported impairment charges of $58 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared with $2 million for the same period a year earlier (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 06

SW: Fair Value View Will Balance Impairment Risk And Earnings Potential

Analysts have nudged their price target for Smurfit Westrock to €44.50. The update reflects adjusted assumptions around revenue growth at 3.18%, profit margin at 6.18% and a forward P/E of 14.01x, while keeping fair value steady at €44.50.
Analysis Article • Dec 28

Is Smurfit Westrock Plc (NYSE:SW) Potentially Undervalued?

Smurfit Westrock Plc ( NYSE:SW ) saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the...
Narrative Update • Dec 15

SW: Rising Margins And Index Inclusion Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have trimmed their price target for Smurfit Westrock by 0.50 dollars to 44.50 dollars, citing lower long term revenue growth expectations, partially offset by improved profit margin forecasts and a reduced future earnings multiple. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock Plc recorded impairment charges of 58 million dollars for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared with 2 million dollars recorded a year earlier (company filing) Smurfit Westrock Plc (ticker: SW) was added to the FTSE All World Index (USD), expanding its presence in global equity benchmarks (index announcement) Smurfit Westrock Plc (ticker: SWR) was simultaneously dropped from the FTSE All World Index (USD) on the London Stock Exchange, reflecting changes in index constituent listings following its cross market structure (index announcement) Valuation Changes The fair value estimate was lowered slightly to $44.50 from $45.00, reflecting modestly weaker long term assumptions.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

SW: Future Index Addition And Margin Resilience Will Boost Share Price Momentum

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Smurfit Westrock from $54.57 to $53.73, citing more cautious assumptions around revenue growth and profit margins in their updated outlook. What's in the News Reported $58 million in impairment charges for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, compared to $2 million a year ago (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Nov 16

SW: Future Index Moves And Margin Strength Will Drive Share Price Momentum

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Smurfit Westrock from $55.90 to $54.57, citing updated forecasts for the company's growth, margins, and risk profile. What's in the News Reported $58 million impairment charges for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, a significant increase from $2 million a year ago (Key Developments) Added to the FTSE All-World Index (NYSE: SW) (Key Developments) Dropped from the FTSE All-World Index (LSE: SWR) (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased slightly from $55.90 to $54.57.
Analysis Article • Nov 15

Smurfit Westrock's (NYSE:SW) Strong Earnings Are Of Good Quality

Smurfit Westrock Plc's ( NYSE:SW ) earnings announcement last week was disappointing for investors, despite the decent...
Narrative Update • Nov 01

SW: Expected Margin Expansion Will Drive Future Upside Potential

Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Smurfit Westrock from $56.03 to $55.90, citing updated assumptions regarding revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rates. What's in the News Reported $58 million in impairment charges for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
Narrative Update • Oct 18

Operational Efficiency And Sustainable Packaging Will Expand Global Markets

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Smurfit Westrock to $56.03 from $56.69. They cite updated assumptions for growth rates and profitability as the reason for the change.
Analysis Article • Sep 20

Is It Time To Consider Buying Smurfit Westrock Plc (NYSE:SW)?

Smurfit Westrock Plc ( NYSE:SW ) received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the NYSE over the...
Narrative Update • Sep 16

Operational Efficiency And Sustainable Packaging Will Expand Global Markets

With both the discount rate and consensus revenue growth forecasts essentially unchanged, there is little fundamental shift in outlook for Smurfit Westrock, and as a result, the consensus analyst price target increased only marginally from $56.46 to $56.69. What's in the News Smurfit Westrock was dropped from the Russell 2500 Index.
Seeking Alpha • Mar 16

Smurfit Westrock: Stock Price Weakness Represents A Clear Buy Opportunity

Summary Smurfit WestRock's stock has declined by 17%, but the merger offers growth potential through synergies and operational efficiencies. A Russia-Ukraine peace deal and International Paper's mill closure could reduce costs and tighten the US market, benefiting Smurfit WestRock. The company's global presence mitigates risks from tariffs and counter-tariffs. Considering Smurfit WestRock valuation vs. peers, the company is a clear buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 06

Smurfit Westrock: Bigger Opportunity To Catch

Summary Smurfit Westrock's merger is a catalyst for growth, driving synergies and enhancing operational efficiencies. It will make Smurfit Westrock a sector champion in disciplined capital allocation. The company might benefit from lower oil prices and has substantial EBITDA sensitivity to energy costs, with recycled paper prices also being a crucial input factor. Smurfit Westrock still trades at a discount vs. peers. Our buy is confirmed. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 29

WestRock Merger Sets Stage For Global Packaging Domination Through Innovation And Sustainability

Smurfit WestRock's merger creates the largest listed packaging company, driving synergies, operational efficiencies, and expanding market reach to boost revenues and profitability.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 01

Smurfit WestRock Plc: Ready To Rock

Summary The Smurfit-WestRock merger is complete, the combined entity will report financials from Q3 2024. Q2 earnings show a positive EBITDA performance, with the CEO optimistic about the paper industry cycle. Synergies, investments, and valuation suggest potential upside. Our target price is set at $54.4 per share, with 20% upside from here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:SW - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202834,7592,0702,2574,83911
12/31/202733,9471,8181,9414,28913
12/31/202632,1251,0131,2653,43313
6/30/202631,3264971,0153,297N/A
3/31/202631,2353801,0223,361N/A
12/31/202531,1796991,2003,392N/A
9/30/202531,1387488002,978N/A
6/30/202530,806352852,165N/A
3/31/202525,835512-591,676N/A
12/31/202421,109319171,483N/A
9/30/202416,4322211481,313N/A
6/30/202411,7386384761,335N/A
3/31/202411,7837354361,338N/A
12/31/202312,0938256301,559N/A
9/30/202312,8551,0135341,451N/A
6/30/202313,3869237561,726N/A
3/31/202313,2801,0035261,459N/A
12/31/202213,5091,0345031,433N/A
9/30/202214,5691,1173781,351N/A
6/30/202212,3769902641,109N/A
3/31/202212,1258983451,131N/A
12/31/202111,9338023671,082N/A
9/30/202111,0687275651,207N/A
6/30/202110,6816837181,302N/A
3/31/202110,2796577841,375N/A
12/31/202010,4206668951,523N/A
9/30/202010,0605668011,453N/A
6/30/20209,6974737121,383N/A
3/31/20209,740494N/A1,319N/A
12/31/201910,149534N/A1,305N/A
9/30/20199,913-72N/A1,245N/A
6/30/201910,393-691N/A1,276N/A
3/31/201910,144-703N/A1,209N/A
12/31/201810,249-740N/A1,183N/A
9/30/201810,326-67N/A1,092N/A
6/30/201810,225626N/A976N/A
3/31/201810,652604N/A973N/A
12/31/201710,272500N/A891N/A
9/30/20179,944470N/A857N/A
6/30/20179,529465N/A859N/A
3/31/20178,841457N/A816N/A
12/31/20168,588467N/A773N/A
9/30/20169,197526N/A883N/A
6/30/20169,064492N/A875N/A
3/31/20169,280477N/A900N/A
12/31/20158,807434N/A846N/A
9/30/20159,071338N/A781N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SW's forecast earnings growth (39.7% per year) is above the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: SW's earnings (39.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (17.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SW's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SW's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SW's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SW's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.9%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/13 02:03
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/11 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Smurfit Westrock Plc is covered by 25 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Gaurav JainBarclays
Pallav MittalBarclays
Eoghan ReidBerenberg