We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Summit Materials Valuation

Is SUM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SUM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SUM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.9x
PEG Ratio-2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SUM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SUM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.4x
EXP Eagle Materials
12.5x5.0%US$5.4b
USLM United States Lime & Minerals
20.2xn/aUS$854.5m
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
27.9x11.0%US$23.0b
VMC Vulcan Materials
40.8x17.8%US$24.9b
SUM Summit Materials
14.2x-5.9%US$4.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SUM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (25.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SUM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Basic Materials Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a13.1%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SUM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the Global Basic Materials industry average (14.3x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SUM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SUM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.2x
Fair PE Ratio9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SUM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SUM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SUM ($34.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($58.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SUM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SUM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$34.25
US$36.38
+6.2%
16.2%US$49.16US$28.00n/a16
Jan ’24US$28.39
US$35.18
+23.9%
19.4%US$49.16US$25.00n/a15
Dec ’23US$29.74
US$34.94
+17.5%
19.8%US$49.16US$24.58n/a15
Nov ’23US$25.68
US$35.00
+36.3%
21.2%US$49.16US$24.09n/a15
Oct ’23US$23.56
US$37.10
+57.5%
19.0%US$51.13US$28.02n/a15
Sep ’23US$27.58
US$37.10
+34.5%
19.5%US$51.13US$28.02n/a15
Aug ’23US$27.19
US$35.14
+29.2%
22.3%US$49.16US$25.57n/a15
Jul ’23US$22.69
US$37.98
+67.4%
18.2%US$49.16US$25.57n/a16
Jun ’23US$26.86
US$39.02
+45.3%
15.0%US$49.16US$32.45n/a16
May ’23US$27.34
US$41.05
+50.2%
11.9%US$49.16US$33.43n/a16
Apr ’23US$30.29
US$41.51
+37.0%
10.6%US$49.16US$34.41n/a16
Mar ’23US$27.14
US$42.28
+55.8%
10.2%US$49.16US$34.41n/a16
Feb ’23US$35.31
US$43.82
+24.1%
7.8%US$49.16US$39.33US$33.6616
Jan ’23US$39.47
US$42.16
+6.8%
9.0%US$49.16US$34.41US$28.3916
Dec ’22US$35.83
US$40.56
+13.2%
8.3%US$46.21US$34.41US$29.7416
Nov ’22US$35.53
US$38.75
+9.1%
8.4%US$46.21US$34.41US$25.6816
Oct ’22US$32.78
US$38.35
+17.0%
8.3%US$46.21US$34.41US$23.5615
Sep ’22US$33.14
US$38.54
+16.3%
9.6%US$49.16US$34.41US$27.5815
Aug ’22US$33.04
US$37.05
+12.1%
8.5%US$42.28US$29.50US$27.1914
Jul ’22US$34.30
US$36.66
+6.9%
9.2%US$42.28US$29.50US$22.6914
Jun ’22US$34.56
US$34.35
-0.6%
12.7%US$38.35US$20.65US$26.8615
May ’22US$28.31
US$30.22
+6.8%
15.9%US$36.38US$19.67US$27.3415
Apr ’22US$27.35
US$28.34
+3.6%
18.5%US$34.41US$17.31US$30.2916
Mar ’22US$27.62
US$27.48
-0.5%
19.4%US$33.43US$17.31US$27.1416
Feb ’22US$22.21
US$23.08
+3.9%
16.3%US$28.52US$15.73US$35.3117

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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