Summit Materials Valuation

Is SUM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SUM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SUM ($47.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($89.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SUM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SUM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SUM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.4x
PEG Ratio1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SUM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SUM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.2x
EXP Eagle Materials
19.9x9.6%US$9.6b
KNF Knife River
27.9x14.5%US$5.5b
USLM United States Lime & Minerals
31.3xn/aUS$3.2b
MLM Martin Marietta Materials
17.8x-12.7%US$36.2b
SUM Summit Materials
57x41.7%US$8.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SUM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57x) compared to the peer average (24.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SUM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Basic Materials Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a7.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SUM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57x) compared to the Global Basic Materials industry average (16x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SUM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SUM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio57x
Fair PE Ratio33.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SUM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (57x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SUM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$47.83
US$48.88
+2.2%
9.4%US$56.00US$41.00n/a15
Oct ’25US$37.82
US$48.61
+28.5%
8.6%US$58.00US$41.00n/a16
Sep ’25US$40.50
US$48.86
+20.6%
8.8%US$58.00US$41.00n/a16
Aug ’25US$40.46
US$48.48
+19.8%
10.3%US$60.00US$41.00n/a16
Jul ’25US$35.63
US$50.42
+41.5%
8.2%US$60.00US$44.00n/a16
Jun ’25US$38.64
US$50.80
+31.5%
9.0%US$60.00US$44.00n/a16
May ’25US$39.23
US$49.79
+26.9%
10.9%US$60.00US$42.00n/a14
Apr ’25US$43.11
US$47.64
+10.5%
9.2%US$60.00US$42.00n/a14
Mar ’25US$43.20
US$46.21
+7.0%
11.1%US$60.00US$39.00n/a14
Feb ’25US$37.37
US$43.77
+17.1%
7.7%US$50.00US$38.00n/a13
Jan ’25US$38.46
US$42.96
+11.7%
7.5%US$50.00US$39.00n/a14
Dec ’24US$35.55
US$42.75
+20.3%
6.8%US$50.00US$39.00n/a14
Nov ’24US$33.92
US$42.62
+25.6%
7.2%US$50.00US$38.00US$47.8313
Oct ’24US$31.14
US$43.23
+38.8%
8.5%US$50.00US$37.00US$37.8213
Sep ’24US$38.37
US$43.67
+13.8%
8.1%US$50.00US$37.00US$40.5015
Aug ’24US$36.61
US$39.87
+8.9%
12.0%US$50.00US$31.00US$40.4615
Jul ’24US$37.85
US$37.83
-0.04%
13.0%US$50.00US$31.00US$35.6315
Jun ’24US$32.21
US$37.50
+16.4%
13.0%US$50.00US$31.00US$38.6416
May ’24US$27.72
US$35.88
+29.4%
16.3%US$50.00US$28.00US$39.2316
Apr ’24US$28.49
US$36.73
+28.9%
15.0%US$50.00US$29.00US$43.1115
Mar ’24US$29.51
US$36.46
+23.6%
15.0%US$50.00US$28.00US$43.2016
Feb ’24US$33.66
US$36.38
+8.1%
16.2%US$49.16US$28.00US$37.3716
Jan ’24US$28.39
US$35.18
+23.9%
19.4%US$49.16US$25.00US$38.4615
Dec ’23US$29.74
US$34.94
+17.5%
19.8%US$49.16US$24.58US$35.5515
Nov ’23US$25.68
US$35.00
+36.3%
21.2%US$49.16US$24.09US$33.9215

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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