Sylvamo Corporation Just Missed EPS By 5.8%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for Sylvamo Corporation (NYSE:SLVM) shares in the week since its quarterly report, with the stock down 11% to US$52.64. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$821m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.8% to hit US$0.65 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from three analysts covering Sylvamo is for revenues of US$3.45b in 2025. This implies a small 6.6% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 6.0% to US$6.60 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.88 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Sylvamo

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$78.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Sylvamo, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$93.00 and the most bearish at US$70.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.8% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Sylvamo's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sylvamo. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Sylvamo going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Sylvamo , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.