A Look at Packaging Corporation of America's Valuation Following Q3 Results and Greif Acquisition Integration

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) just released its Q3 2025 results, drawing investor interest thanks to updates on the integration of the recently acquired Greif containerboard operations. The acquisition adds two mills and eight plants to PKG’s operations.

See our latest analysis for Packaging Corporation of America.

The recent jump in Packaging Corporation of America’s share price, up over 2% in the past week, suggests investors are encouraged by its increased scale from the Greif acquisition and the potential for stronger shipment growth ahead. While the shares are down nearly 11% year-to-date, the long-term picture remains robust with a three-year total shareholder return of 69%. Consistent operational execution and capacity expansion are fueling optimism that momentum could pick up if synergies from the new assets are realized.

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With shares rebounding after strong results but still trading below their yearly highs, is PKG undervalued with room to run? Alternatively, has the stock already priced in expectations for future growth from its latest expansion?

Most Popular Narrative: 10.8% Undervalued

Packaging Corporation of America’s last close price of $200.55 is well below the narrative fair value estimate of $224.90. Analysts see a gap that hints at room for the stock to rebound if projected growth plays out as expected.

The successful startup of the new efficient box plant in Glendale, Arizona, is expected to increase productivity, reduce costs, and enhance service capabilities. This could potentially improve net margins and earnings in future quarters.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The key assumptions include ambitious expansion plans and strong improvement in profitability. What financial targets are fueling these projections? Discover which bold expectations drive this compelling fair value story.

Result: Fair Value of $224.90 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing economic uncertainty and potential spikes in operational costs could put pressure on Packaging Corporation of America's margins and challenge the optimistic outlook for growth.

Find out about the key risks to this Packaging Corporation of America narrative.

Build Your Own Packaging Corporation of America Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig through the numbers yourself, you can craft your own narrative about Packaging Corporation of America in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Packaging Corporation of America research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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