Stock Analysis

Martin Marietta Materials' (NYSE:MLM) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

NYSE:MLM
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The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE:MLM) share price has soared 179% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. On the other hand, the stock price has retraced 4.1% in the last week.

Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 4.1%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.

View our latest analysis for Martin Marietta Materials

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Martin Marietta Materials achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 34% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 23% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:MLM Earnings Per Share Growth May 22nd 2024

We know that Martin Marietta Materials has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Martin Marietta Materials' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Martin Marietta Materials' TSR for the last 5 years was 189%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Martin Marietta Materials shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 47% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 24% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Martin Marietta Materials (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.

We will like Martin Marietta Materials better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Martin Marietta Materials is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.