Can Knife River’s (KNF) Tightened Guidance Reflect Durable Strength Amid Sector Hurdles?

• On November 4, 2025, Knife River Corporation released its third-quarter results, reporting quarterly revenue of US$1.20 billion and net income of US$143.2 million, alongside tightening its full-year 2025 guidance to revenue between US$3.10 billion and US$3.15 billion, and net income between US$140 million and US$160.5 million.
• An important development was Wells Fargo's upgrade of Knife River, highlighting optimism for a recovery in Oregon due to recent legislative advances in transportation funding, even as the company faces ongoing sector challenges and revised analyst expectations.
• We'll explore how the company's narrowed earnings guidance and legislative progress in Oregon may reshape its current investment narrative.

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Knife River Investment Narrative Recap

To invest in Knife River, you have to believe in the company's ability to capitalize on strong public infrastructure funding and a record backlog, while weathering significant exposure to the Oregon market and cost pressures. The latest guidance update reflects steady revenue expectations but reveals persistent earnings headwinds, which means the company's short-term outlook still depends on Oregon's legislative follow-through, a risk that remains unresolved, despite some optimism from Wells Fargo's upgrade.

Among recent announcements, the narrowed 2025 guidance stands out: Knife River now expects full-year revenue between US$3.10 billion and US$3.15 billion, and net income of US$140 million to US$160.5 million. This revision underscores the pressures management faces from both operational and regional legislative uncertainties, directly tying the most important catalyst, Oregon's transportation funding recovery, to near-term performance, while also emphasizing the vulnerability if that funding stalls.

Yet, despite optimism surrounding backlog and funding progress, investors need to be aware that Oregon’s infrastructure legislation still faces...

Read the full narrative on Knife River (it's free!)

Knife River's narrative projects $3.6 billion revenue and $264.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.4% yearly revenue growth and a $111.1 million earnings increase from $153.3 million today.

Uncover how Knife River's forecasts yield a $102.11 fair value, a 44% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provided two fair value estimates for Knife River ranging from US$34.24 to US$102.11 per share. These diverging opinions are set against continued uncertainty from Oregon’s infrastructure funding, reminding you that expectations for the company's performance can differ widely, explore several alternative viewpoints before deciding what matters most.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Knife River - why the stock might be worth as much as 44% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Knife River Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Knife River research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Knife River research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Knife River's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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