Surging Net Income Amid Mixed Results Could Be a Game Changer for Greif (GEF)

• Greif reported earnings for the periods ended September 30, 2025, showing sales of US$701.3 million for the past two months and US$3.93 billion for the past eleven months, both slightly below prior-year levels, but with net income soaring to US$720.1 million and US$840 million respectively.
• The results highlighted a very large year-over-year jump in net income and earnings per share, despite mixed operating performance and losses from continuing operations in the recent two-month period.
• We’ll explore how the very large increase in reported net income could impact Greif’s investment narrative and outlook.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 32 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

Greif Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Greif, you need to believe in the company’s renewed focus on polymers and value-added packaging markets, as well as its cost-efficiency initiatives following recent divestments. The latest earnings reveal a sizable spike in net income, but the headline results appear driven by large one-off items rather than improved core fundamentals. This does not materially alter the short-term catalyst of leveraging cost reductions for greater margin expansion, while persistent volume softness across key segments remains the clearest risk to the business outlook right now. Among recent announcements, Greif’s decision to sell its Soterra land management business for US$462 million stands out as most relevant to the current results. By narrowing its portfolio, the company intensifies its focus on markets with perceived long-term growth and margin potential, but this strategy increases its exposure to the cyclical swings and regulatory risks of the core packaging sector, sharpening both near-term opportunities and longer-term uncertainties. However, even against the backdrop of these portfolio moves, investors should be aware that...

Read the full narrative on Greif (it's free!)

Greif's outlook anticipates $4.0 billion in revenue and $327.0 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario is based on a 9.4% annual revenue decline and an earnings increase of about $186 million from the current $140.7 million.

Uncover how Greif's forecasts yield a $73.80 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from three Simply Wall St Community contributors range widely, from as low as US$54.92 to as high as US$206.21 per share. While many are watching for margin benefits from cost optimization, ongoing volume softness in Greif’s core segments could pose a substantial challenge to performance, underscoring the importance of weighing all available viewpoints.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Greif - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Greif Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Greif research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Greif research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Greif's overall financial health at a glance.

Ready To Venture Into Other Investment Styles?

Don't miss your shot at the next 10-bagger. Our latest stock picks just dropped:

• This technology could replace computers: discover 28 stocks that are working to make quantum computing a reality.
• We've found 17 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.
• Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 22 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com