Crown Holdings (CCK): Assessing Valuation Following Upgraded 2025 Outlook and Shareholder Return Boost

Crown Holdings (CCK) just raised its full-year 2025 earnings and free cash flow forecasts, indicating a stronger outlook. The update follows continued growth in its European business along with a focus on shareholder returns.

See our latest analysis for Crown Holdings.

Crown Holdings’ upbeat 2025 outlook follows a robust year-to-date share price return of 22%, as the company ramped up buybacks and boosted shareholder returns. While its recent buyback activity caught investor attention, the 1-year total shareholder return sits at 6.8%, showing solid progress but leaving room for long-term growth potential. Momentum appears to be building as fresh forecasts and capital returns reinforce confidence in the story.

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But with shares now up over 20% for the year and trading at a discount to analyst targets, investors are left to ask whether Crown is undervalued or if renewed optimism is already priced in.

Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

Compared to Crown Holdings’ last closing price of $99.15, the most widely followed narrative assigns a fair value of $121.13 per share. With this gap, the narrative points to significant upside and frames current levels as an entry point for investors who trust in the company’s projected growth path and capital return plans.

Ongoing investments in capacity expansion and plant modernization, especially in high-growth markets such as Europe and Brazil, are enabling Crown to capture market share and support future sales growth. This also positions the company to take advantage of tightening supply and potential future customer wins, which could boost both revenue and operating margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want the numbers behind that bold price target? There is a recipe of future profit margin jumps and sales acceleration in this narrative. Which core financial gears need to turn for Crown’s value story to play out? Only the full narrative reveals the ambitious assumptions that hold the key.

Result: Fair Value of $121.13 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent input cost inflation and slowing demand in key regions could challenge Crown’s growth outlook and place pressure on its projected margin expansion.

Find out about the key risks to this Crown Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Crown Holdings Narrative

If you want to challenge these conclusions or prefer to map out your own view based on the data, you can build a fresh perspective in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Crown Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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