Amcor (NYSE:AMCR): Assessing Valuation Following Recent Share Price Weakness

Amcor (AMCR) shares have experienced some recent declines, with the stock now down 24% over the past year. This has left investors wondering what factors might be influencing the company’s long-term positioning in the packaging industry.

See our latest analysis for Amcor.

While Amcor’s share price has slipped another 4.2% in the past day, this extends a tougher trend, with the 1-year total shareholder return now at -23.6%. Momentum remains weak as investor sentiment fades, even though there have been recent efforts to adapt to shifting packaging industry dynamics.

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With Amcor’s stock now trading at a noticeable discount to analyst targets and recent profit growth, the big question remains: is this the moment to buy in, or is the market simply reflecting limited future upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 23.3% Undervalued

Amcor’s latest widely-followed narrative places its fair value at $10.43 per share, notably above the last closing price of $8.00. This gap signals that prevailing analyst views anticipate substantial upside, despite the recent share slump and uncertainty after the Berry Global acquisition.

The integration of Berry Global with Amcor is expected to yield $650 million in synergies by fiscal 2028 (with $260 million in fiscal 2026), primarily through cost reduction, procurement optimization, and operational efficiencies, which should support sustained EPS and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling this bullish price target? The real drivers are significant operational ambitions and bold expansion forecasts. These are based on industry-shaping profit goals and a premium earnings multiple. Discover which major assumptions justify this eye-catching valuation and how analysts expect Amcor to outperform its past.

Result: Fair Value of $10.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weak demand and ongoing uncertainty around the North American beverage business could limit Amcor’s rebound and challenge the bullish narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Amcor narrative.

Another View: The Multiples Perspective

While some see Amcor as undervalued, a multiples approach tells a different story. Amcor currently trades at 36.2 times earnings, which is well above both the global packaging industry’s average of 15.9 and a peer average of 28. Compared to its fair ratio of 25.8, this higher valuation could signal more risk if the market reassesses expectations. Should investors trust the multiples, or is there more to the story?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Amcor Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig deeper into the details yourself, you can easily craft your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Amcor research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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