Hawkins, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 13%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a mediocre week for Hawkins, Inc. (NASDAQ:HWKN) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to US$142 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$280m, although statutory earnings per share came in 13% below what the analysts expected, at US$1.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the four analysts covering Hawkins are now predicting revenues of US$1.09b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.3% to US$4.35. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.37 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Hawkins

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 8.0% to US$166. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hawkins at US$200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$100.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hawkins' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.5% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hawkins is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Hawkins. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hawkins going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Hawkins that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.