Direct Line Insurance Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of DIIS.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DIIS.F ($2.14) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($3.73)

Is DIIS.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DIIS.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DIIS.F ($2.14) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($3.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DIIS.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DIIS.F?

Key metric: As DIIS.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DIIS.F. This is calculated by dividing DIIS.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DIIS.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	9.6x
Earnings	UK£302.60m
Market Cap	UK£2.92b

DIIS.F key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.3x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DIIS.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DIIS.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.4x
AGO Assured Guaranty	6.5x	-37.5%	US$4.8b
PLMR Palomar Holdings	26.5x	23.4%	US$2.9b
FIHL Fidelis Insurance Holdings	5x	3.2%	US$2.3b
MCY Mercury General	7.8x	-12.8%	US$4.4b
DIIS.F Direct Line Insurance Group	9.6x	8.1%	US$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DIIS.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DIIS.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Insurance Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
UTGN UTG	2x	n/a	US$89.87m
AORE.F American Overseas Group	2.1x	n/a	US$16.68m
CUII China United Insurance Service	0.0003x	n/a	US$3.13k

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DIIS.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the US Insurance industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DIIS.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DIIS.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.6x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate DIIS.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DIIS.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	US$2.14	US$2.74 +28.2%	19.4%	US$4.44	US$2.09	n/a	14
Nov ’25	n/a	US$2.94 0%	15.3%	US$4.55	US$2.54	n/a	17
Oct ’25	n/a	US$2.98 0%	15.2%	US$4.62	US$2.57	n/a	17
Sep ’25	n/a	US$3.01 0%	16.2%	US$4.61	US$2.57	n/a	17
Aug ’25	n/a	US$2.93 0%	16.4%	US$4.50	US$2.51	n/a	17
Jul ’25	n/a	US$2.93 0%	15.9%	US$4.43	US$2.47	n/a	16
Jun ’25	n/a	US$2.94 0%	15.9%	US$4.45	US$2.48	n/a	16
May ’25	n/a	US$2.94 0%	15.9%	US$4.35	US$2.42	n/a	14
Apr ’25	US$2.39	US$2.88 +20.7%	17.8%	US$4.42	US$2.15	n/a	13
Mar ’25	n/a	US$2.66 0%	22.7%	US$4.42	US$1.89	n/a	13
Feb ’25	n/a	US$2.68 0%	20.8%	US$4.45	US$1.91	n/a	15
Jan ’25	US$2.30	US$2.57 +11.8%	23.4%	US$4.39	US$1.88	n/a	14
Dec ’24	n/a	US$2.59 0%	23.6%	US$4.45	US$1.91	n/a	14
Nov ’24	n/a	US$2.34 0%	25.9%	US$4.26	US$1.83	n/a	13
Oct ’24	n/a	US$2.46 0%	28.3%	US$4.34	US$1.86	n/a	13
Sep ’24	n/a	US$2.46 0%	26.2%	US$4.41	US$1.89	n/a	17
Aug ’24	n/a	US$2.54 0%	26.4%	US$4.53	US$1.94	n/a	17
Jul ’24	US$1.85	US$2.55 +37.6%	24.4%	US$4.41	US$1.92	n/a	18
Jun ’24	n/a	US$2.55 0%	24.4%	US$4.42	US$1.92	n/a	18
May ’24	n/a	US$2.55 0%	24.5%	US$4.37	US$1.90	n/a	18
Apr ’24	n/a	US$2.46 0%	26.2%	US$4.32	US$1.68	US$2.39	18
Mar ’24	US$2.22	US$2.46 +10.7%	25.6%	US$4.21	US$1.71	n/a	18
Feb ’24	n/a	US$2.75 0%	24.9%	US$4.34	US$1.76	n/a	18
Jan ’24	n/a	US$2.98 0%	17.9%	US$4.29	US$2.08	US$2.30	18
Dec ’23	US$2.70	US$2.97 +9.9%	17.7%	US$4.29	US$2.08	n/a	18
Nov ’23	n/a	US$2.83 0%	17.2%	US$4.01	US$2.01	n/a	19

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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