Octave Specialty Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 0/6
Octave Specialty Group's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -16.5%, while the Insurance industry saw earnings growing at 14.6% annually. Revenues have been declining at an average rate of 1.2% per year.
Key information
-16.46%
Earnings growth rate
-16.14%
EPS growth rate
| Insurance Industry Growth | 8.02% |
| Revenue growth rate | -1.15% |
| Return on equity | -8.18% |
| Net Margin | -32.69% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 13
OSG: Completed Buybacks Will Tighten Float And Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their $12.00 price target for Octave Specialty Group unchanged, citing updated assumptions that include a slightly lower discount rate, adjusted revenue growth expectations of 15.54%, a profit margin estimate of 10.93%, and a projected future P/E of 12.26x. What's in the News From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Octave Specialty Group repurchased 3,142,554 shares for US$27.34 million, representing 6.73% of its shares.Narrative Update • Apr 22
OSG: Completed Buybacks Will Tighten Float And Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have kept their $12.00 price target for Octave Specialty Group unchanged, noting only slight adjustments to underlying assumptions such as discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, which they view as offsetting each other overall. What's in the News Between October 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025, Octave Specialty Group repurchased 3,142,554 shares, representing 6.73% of its shares, for $27.34 million under its existing buyback program (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Apr 07
OSG: Share Repurchases Will Tighten Float And Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts now maintain their price target for Octave Specialty Group at $12.00, citing similar fair value and margin assumptions, with only modest adjustments to revenue growth, the discount rate, and future P/E inputs. What's in the News Completed share repurchase of 4,371,886 shares, representing 9.33% of outstanding shares, for a total of $42.45 million under the buyback announced on November 12, 2024 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 23
OSG: Share Repurchases Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts now hold their price target for Octave Specialty Group at $12.00, reflecting slightly updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate, and future P/E that fine tune rather than overhaul their prior view. What's in the News Completed share repurchase program with a total of 4,371,886 shares bought back for $42.45 million, representing 9.33% of shares under the buyback announced on November 12, 2024 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 09
OSG: Share Repurchases And Auditor Shift Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have reduced their price target on Octave Specialty Group from $15.00 to $12.00, reflecting updated assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E. What's in the News Completed share repurchase of 4,371,886 shares in total, representing 9.33% of shares, for $41.69 million under the buyback announced on November 12, 2024.Narrative Update • Feb 22
OSG: Auditor Transition And Execution Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price target on Octave Specialty Group to $15.00. This change reflects updated assumptions around slightly higher projected revenue growth, a modestly stronger profit margin, and a lower future P/E multiple.Narrative Update • Feb 07
OSG: ArmadaCare Execution And Organic Expansion Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have raised their price target on Octave Specialty Group to $15 from $10, citing updated models that incorporate recent earnings, higher assumed organic growth, and the impact of the ArmadaCare deal. Analyst Commentary While the new US$15 price target signals higher modeled value for Octave Specialty Group, not all of the commentary behind the scenes is purely optimistic.Narrative Update • Jan 24
OSG: Higher Growth Assumptions And ArmadaCare Integration Will Drive Future Upside
Narrative Update Analysts have lifted their price target on Octave Specialty Group to US$15 from US$10, citing refreshed models that factor in higher assumed organic growth, the ArmadaCare acquisition and recent quarterly performance. Analyst Commentary While the higher US$15 target reflects more constructive modeling around organic growth and the ArmadaCare acquisition, not all commentary skews optimistic.
Narrative Update • Jan 09
OSG: Earnings Beat And ArmadaCare Integration Will Support Long-Term Share Gains
Analysts have raised their price target on Octave Specialty Group by $5 to $15, citing updated models that incorporate Q3 earnings, revised assumptions for organic growth, and the expected impact of the ArmadaCare transaction. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the updated Q3 earnings model as support for the new US$15 price target, arguing that current valuation better reflects Octave Specialty Group's recent financial results.Narrative Update • Dec 25
OSG: Earnings Beat And Deals Will Drive Long-Term Shareholder Upside
Analysts raised their price target for Octave Specialty Group by $5, increasing it to $15 from $10. They cited updated models that reflect stronger assumed organic growth following an earnings beat and recent strategic transactions, which they believe support a path to sustained elevated expansion.Narrative Update • Dec 11
OSG: Q3 Earnings Beat Will Support Long-Term Shareholder Value Expansion
Analysts raised their price target on Octave Specialty Group to $15 from $10, citing updated models that reflect stronger than expected Q3 performance, higher assumed organic growth, and incremental upside from recent strategic deals. Analyst Commentary Analysts note that the revised price target for Octave Specialty Group is grounded in tangible improvements to the company’s growth profile, as well as rising confidence in management’s ability to execute on recent strategic initiatives.Narrative Update • Nov 27
OSG: Sustained Organic Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value
Analysts have raised their price target for Octave Specialty Group, increasing it by $5 to reflect stronger than expected organic growth and recent strategic acquisitions. Analyst Commentary Following the recent price target increase, analysts have provided additional context regarding their views on Octave Specialty Group's prospects.Narrative Update • Nov 13
AMBC: Revenue Momentum and Armada Acquisition Will Drive Further Share Upside
Analysts have raised their price target for Octave Specialty Group from $14.67 to $16.33. They cite stronger projected revenue growth and improved profitability metrics in their updated outlook.Seeking Alpha • Oct 03
Ambac: Surprise Acquisition Changes Outlook (Rating Downgrade)
Summary Ambac is downgraded to Hold following the surprise $250M ArmadaCare acquisition after selling its legacy guarantee business. The new deal adds product diversification and potential growth, but reintroduces debt and increases risk to the balance sheet. Management maintains 2028 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $80M–$90M, despite the significant size of the ArmadaCare acquisition. I recommend waiting for a lower entry price below $7 or more clarity in Q3 results before considering AMBC a Buy again. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNew Narrative • Jul 20
US Infrastructure Spending And Automation Will Unlock Insurance Potential
Diversification into specialty insurance and tech-driven operations is improving revenue stability, earnings quality, and operational efficiency.Seeking Alpha • Mar 01
Ambac: Despite EPS Miss, It's A Growth Company
Summary Ambac Financial Group saw a stock decline after an earnings miss for Q4. Such a sell-off overlooks the fundamental improvements: profitable underwriting and the build-out of a higher-ROE distribution platform. The sale of the legacy business remains to be approved by Wisconsin, creating a thorn in AMBC's side for the moment. Management, however, was eager about the growth ahead; the current price is a small P/E for earnings in just a few years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 27
Ambac Financial: Don't Get Lost In The Weeds; It's Working
Summary Ambac Financial Group has shifted from guarantee insurance to specialty property-casualty insurance and distribution. Despite a drop in tangible book value per share, the sale of the legacy business and recent acquisitions are expected to improve financials and boost earnings. Ambac Financial faces risks from recent hurricanes and potential delays in the legacy business sale approval, but overall outlook remains positive. I maintain a Buy rating on AMBC stock, believing Ambac's turnaround strategy will lead to better capitalization and improved earnings, offering a favorable risk-reward asymmetry. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 30
Ambac Financial: Unbundling The Recent Sale And The New Acquisition
Summary Ambac sold its Financial Guarantee business to Oaktree at a disappointing valuation, causing a 20% drop in stock price. The company reinvested proceeds into acquiring a majority stake in Beat Capital Partners for $280 million at a generous valuation, raising concerns among investors. Despite the negative stock reaction, a new valuation framework suggests a fair value per share of around $15, indicating a 20% upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 27
Ambac: Finally Shaking Off The Great Financial Crisis
Summary Ambac Financial Group has undergone a turnaround after the 2008 Financial Crisis, improving its financial position and evolving its business model. The company's balance sheet appears healthy and able to meet upcoming obligations, with a new focus on specialty property-casualty insurance. AMBC is positioning itself to underwrite its products through a technology-driven MGA model, aiming to take advantage of the growing US market with attractive loss ratios. Yet, investors should remember that the discount exists for a reason, given how a recession could particularly affect a company like this. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 10
Ambac: Releasable Liquidity And SOTP Analysis Reveals Upside Potential
Summary Ambac is a complex company with a financial guarantees business and a new specialty P&C insurance business. We run a comparison with MBIA to compute releasable liquidity from the FG business that may be paid out as a special dividend. Ambac may benefit from a liquidity release or a sale, but the bulk of its value lies in its new businesses. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 24
Ambac Financial Group Inc: Debt Trap Disguised As Value Opportunity
Summary Ambac Financial Group Inc is trading at low multiples but has a significant amount of debt that is impacting its expansion capacities. AMBC operates through two divisions, Everspan and Cirrata, and presents itself as an opportunity in the growing specialty coverage market. The company's high debt levels and inconsistent bottom line make it a risky investment, and the share price is expected to decline further. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jun 14
Ambac Remains Discounted By An Apprehensive Market
Summary Ambac has seen significant price appreciation since the announced settlement with Bank of America and Nomura Holdings. Alongside aggressive growth from Cirrata, shareholders can expect effective organic and inorganic growth from Ambac. Despite these factors, Ambac still trades at a 23% undervaluation, leading me to rate the company a 'buy'. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 03
Ambac settles with Nomura, closing financial crisis-era RMBS lawsuits
Ambac Financial Group (NYSE:AMBC) said Tuesday its Assurance Corporation subsidiary (AAC) entered into a settlement agreement with Nomura (NYSE:NMR) that will give AAC $140M. The settlement brings to an end all of Ambac's (AMBC) legacy residential mortgage-backed securities representation and warranty litigation that arose from the 2008 financial crisis. In October, Bank of America (BAC) agreed to pay Ambac $1.8B to settle litigation related to mortgage company Countrywide's collapse during the crisis. The settlement exceeds the amount of recovery recorded on Ambac's (AMBC) Q3 2022 GAAP financial statements attributed to the Nomura (NMR) litigation. As a result, the company will record a gain of ~$43M in its Q4 financial statement. Last month, Street Insider reported that Assured Guaranty (AGO) and Ambac Financial (AMBC) had made bids for rival MBIA (MBI).Analysis Article • May 12
Just In: One Analyst Has Become A Lot More Bullish On Ambac Financial Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:AMBC) Earnings
Celebrations may be in order for Ambac Financial Group, Inc. ( NYSE:AMBC ) shareholders, with the covering analyst...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Octave Specialty Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 293 | -96 | 179 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 251 | -117 | 166 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 254 | -106 | 183 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 258 | -94 | 165 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 254 | -87 | 141 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 241 | -65 | 122 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 105 | -78 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 104 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 113 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 125 | -20 | 67 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 325 | 197 | 173 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 320 | 471 | 138 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 273 | 489 | 144 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 54 | -33 | 56 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 234 | 327 | 107 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 216 | 4 | 108 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 258 | -31 | 102 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 249 | -29 | 111 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 245 | -23 | 119 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 254 | -148 | 110 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 275 | -153 | 102 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 156 | -437 | 92 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 175 | -533 | 90 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 195 | -359 | 93 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 217 | -453 | 102 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 362 | -216 | 103 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 337 | -126 | 101 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 393 | -296 | 104 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 444 | -163 | 101 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 506 | 186 | 112 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 629 | 187 | 120 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 629 | 100 | 126 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 613 | 102 | 131 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 567 | -329 | 122 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 551 | -404 | 130 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 577 | -112 | 117 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 576 | -60 | 114 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 552 | 75 | 114 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 542 | 557 | 105 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 532 | 64 | 108 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 584 | 288 | 106 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 688 | 493 | 103 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 662 | 560 | 102 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 685 | 1,033 | 102 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: OSG is currently unprofitable.
Growing Profit Margin: OSG is currently unprofitable.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: OSG is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 16.5% per year.
Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare OSG's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable
Earnings vs Industry: OSG is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Insurance industry (36.2%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: OSG has a negative Return on Equity (-8.18%), as it is currently unprofitable.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/22 07:24 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 2 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Giuliano Anderes Bologna | BTIG |
| Mary Kane | Citigroup Inc |
| Giuliano Anderes Bologna | Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC |