Accelerant Holdings

NYSE:ARX Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.9b

Accelerant Holdings Future Growth

Future criteria checks 5/6

Accelerant Holdings is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 145.9% and 14.4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 135.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 30.1% in 3 years.

Key information

145.9%

Earnings growth rate

135.74%

EPS growth rate

Insurance earnings growth2.1%
Revenue growth rate14.4%
Future return on equity30.05%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 26

ARX: Tech-Driven MGA Marketplace And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have reduced their price target for Accelerant Holdings to $16 from $17 as they reset assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E expectations while also applying a slightly higher discount rate. What’s in the News for Accelerant Holdings Accelerant Holdings operates a tech-enabled MGA marketplace that connects managing general agents and risk capital partners using data analytics and machine learning, according to recent coverage of the company’s business model.
Seeking Alpha • May 29

Accelerant Holdings Is Gaining Traction

Summary Accelerant Holdings delivers robust growth, with FY25 exchange premiums up 35%, revenues up 51%, and adjusted EBITDA up 149%, driven by its capital-light, AI-powered platform. ARX's AI-driven underwriting and proprietary data moat enable superior risk selection, evidenced by a 51% gross loss ratio and high operating leverage, supporting scalable, high-margin growth. The shift to third-party capital accelerated, with only 9% of premiums retained and 40% of Q4 EWP written by partners, positioning ARX for surplus capital and durable free cash flow. Shares trade at 9x FY26 EV/EBITDA; despite minor GAAP/non-GAAP gaps, ongoing Mission equity buybacks and a $200M buyback program reinforce long-term alignment and value creation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
New Narrative • Jan 23

Data And AI Execution Risks May Soften Exchange Fee Potential Yet Still Support Upside

Catalysts About Accelerant Holdings Accelerant Holdings operates a specialty insurance risk exchange that connects niche underwriters with risk capital providers and earns primarily fee-based revenue. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ARX - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20281,445123N/AN/A5
12/31/20271,24287129N/A9
12/31/20261,1093169N/A9
3/31/2026954-1,437290332N/A
12/31/2025856-1,425404445N/A
9/30/2025767-1,403586625N/A
6/30/202568944790828N/A
3/31/202560627698733N/A
12/31/202456227751786N/A
9/30/20244923611643N/A
12/31/2023324-49257290N/A
9/30/2023282-64162193N/A
12/31/2022220-924168N/A
12/31/2021101-2198113N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: ARX is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: ARX is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ARX's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ARX's revenue (14.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ARX's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (30.1%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/09 21:33
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/09 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Accelerant Holdings is covered by 11 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael ZaremskiBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
null nullBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Matthew CarlettiCitizens JMP Securities, LLC