The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Last week, you might have seen that The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.9% to US$135 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$3.9b were what the analysts expected, Estée Lauder Companies surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.91 per share, an impressive 80% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Estée Lauder Companies

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Estée Lauder Companies' 25 analysts is for revenues of US$16.9b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 9.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 130% to US$4.12. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.29 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$154, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Estée Lauder Companies at US$210 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$130. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Estée Lauder Companies' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.9% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Estée Lauder Companies is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$154, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Estée Lauder Companies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Estée Lauder Companies (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.