Results: Penumbra, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE:PEN) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.7% to hit US$339m. Penumbra also reported a statutory profit of US$1.15, which was an impressive 40% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Penumbra's 18 analysts is for revenues of US$1.37b in 2025. This reflects an okay 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 8.3% to US$4.13. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.35b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.88 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Penumbra's earnings potential following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Penumbra

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$311, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Penumbra analyst has a price target of US$350 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$265. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Penumbra is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Penumbra's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Penumbra is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Penumbra following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$311, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Penumbra. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Penumbra going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.