Alcon Inc.

NYSE:ALC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$32.1b

Alcon Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Alcon is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 18.1% and 6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 18.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 8.9% in 3 years.

Key information

18.1%

Earnings growth rate

18.89%

EPS growth rate

Medical Equipment earnings growth16.2%
Revenue growth rate6.0%
Future return on equity8.92%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated01 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • May 31

Alcon: Product Cycle Reset Creates An Attractive Entry Point (Initiating Buy)

Summary Alcon receives a buy rating, driven by the launch of Tryptyr in the mature dry eye disease market. Tryptyr's unique mechanism and rapid tear production differentiate it, but commercial adoption hinges on refill rates, payer coverage, and patient persistence. ALC's robust commercial footprint and strong balance sheet support ongoing R&D, M&A, dividends, and buybacks, mitigating financing risks. Key risks include payer restrictions, patient tolerability, competition, and potential growth deceleration post-2026. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 04

Alcon: An Eyecare Leader With Strong Profit Margins, But Overheated Valuation

Summary Alcon is downgraded to a hold from my buy rating in fall 2023, after it has gone up +18% since then and now appears overvalued with a 48x earnings multiple. The firm has a strong profit margin vs its sector, low debt/equity vs a key peer Bausch & Lomb, and investment-grade credit ratings. Its positive cashflow growth should help sustain its dividend. Some risks in this sector are product recalls and supply-chain disruptions, as past events have shown us. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 04

Alcon Q2: Positive News From Unity VCS/CS And AR-15512

Summary I reiterate a 'Strong Buy' rating for Alcon with a one-year price target of $115 per share, driven by new product pipelines and FDA clearances. Alcon's Unity VCS/CS systems received FDA clearance, set for U.S. commercialization in 2025, enhancing their competitive edge in cataract and vitreoretinal surgery markets. Alcon's partnership with Ocumension in China will leverage local distribution and manufacturing to expand their dry eye treatment business, including Systane Ultra and AR-15512. Despite some U.S. market challenges, I project Alcon to achieve 7% organic revenue growth, supported by product innovation and strategic acquisitions. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 01

Alcon: Trading At An Undeserved Premium Valuation

Summary Global eye care giant Alcon, Inc. has seen its stock rise some 30% since its late October lows. The company is delivering solid, but hardly spectacular revenue growth, and is seeing much better free cash flow. The stock now trades at a significant valuation premium to the overall market. Is that premium valuation deserved? An analysis of Alcon follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 14

Alcon Q1: Robust Product Pipeline Drives Future Growth (Rating Upgrade)

Summary Alcon has experienced robust Q1 growth, driven by double-digit growth in vision care, particularly in the contact lens market. The company's strong revenue growth is attributed to successful product launches, such as TOTAL30 and DAILIES TOTAL1, which have helped Alcon gain market share. Alcon's FY24 forecast shows potential for increased free cash flow, strong revenue growth in vision care, and growth opportunities in the surgical business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 10

Alcon: Buy An Eyecare Leader With $2 Billion In Quarterly Sales

Summary Alcon gets a Buy Rating today, in line with Wall Street consensus. Strengths include earnings growth, share price crossover below 200-day average, outperformance vs. the S&P500 index, and the company's strong cash position. Offsetting factors include a high valuation and poor dividend yield. The downside risk of debt levels was also addressed. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 26

Alcon: Lackluster Growth Given Its Valuation

Summary Alcon stock is currently trading at over 30x earnings, which is considered high for a company not expected to deliver EPS above 20 - 25% in the next few years. Despite the high trading multiple, Alcon has a strong business model and is a leader in the eye care industry, with recent positive developments in its product line and services. Alcon's share price is currently inflated due to hopes of significant free cash flow being diverted to shareholders, but I suggest this optimism may be misplaced and recommend a hold rating for the company. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 27

Alcon: The Steady Force Of 'Boring'

Summary Alcon is expected to outpace market growth and gain market share in the surgical and vision care sectors, with growth driven by factors such as the increasing global aging population and rise in myopia. Along with Costco, Aon, and Marsh & McLennan, Alcon is another "boring" investment in my portfolio. Alcon's focus on R&D, product innovation, and accelerated free cash flow generation contribute to a positive outlook, earning a "Buy" rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 13

Alcon reached $199M settlement with J&J Surgical Vision

Eye care company Alcon (NYSE:ALC) has reached a settlement with J&J Surgical Vision on its pending legal proceedings related to femtosecond laser assisted cataract surgery devices. The parties have exchanged cross-licenses of certain intellectual property and other mutually agreed covenants and releases, as part of the settlement. In addition, Alcon (ALC) has agreed to make a one-time payment of $199M to J&J Surgical Vision for those rights and to resolve various worldwide IP disputes relating to this matter.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 01

Alcon: Case Of Growth Destructive To Value, Reiterate Hold At 24x Earnings

Summary A firm creates value when its return on invested capital exceeds its cost of capital. If it doesn't, regardless of its expansion, growth will become destructive to shareholder value. This has been the case for Alcon Inc. over the past few years. Hence, despite a breakout above long-term resistance, we believe there's no mispricing on offer. Net-net, reiterate Alcon Inc. hold at 24x earnings. Investment summary Participating as an equity investor over the broad healthcare spectrum requires unique insights. This could come from [but is not limited to] industry experience, investing experience, managing a portfolio or basket of healthcare securities, or a combination of all three. Nevertheless, the core principles of understanding what constitutes a good equity investment remain the same. I'm going to run through the underlying framework we took with re-evaluating Alcon Inc. (ALC) after our last publication in September last year [see it here]. Back then, we rated Alcon Inc. a hold, asking for the stock to break its longer-term downtrend. This happened in December, and shares are up ~13%. So, it's worth sharing the deeper fundamental analysis we undertook in rating it a hold. We'd note there's scope for the stock to re-rate higher. However, net-net, we reiterate Alcon Inc. stock as a hold for long biased, long-term, fundamental healthcare investors. Exhibit 1. ALC breakout above long-term resistance Data: Updata Underlying concepts in ALC analysis Growth, free cash flow and return on capital - the tripod of success Companies want to grow at a specified, yet non-linear growth into perpetuity. Investors want a piece of that growth, but only at a "fair" price, to maximize the upside. The questions being, what is fair, and what is the opportunity cost. For mature companies, the growth profile is harder to come by, not in the least related to sheer size. Mauboussin (2021) quotes theoretical physicist Geoffrey West, who compares the "sigmoidal growth" of companies to that of mammals - after birth, the focus is on expending energy on growth. After time, this molds to a focus on maintenance. It's no different for companies in their mature stage of their lifecycle. Still, there are a number of ways a company can evolve and expand efficiently, from adding new products, increasing productivity, reducing capital intensity, or decompressing margins. Within this mix, there's also many subcomponents. For instance, Mckinsey & Co. (2017) illustrate that companies focusing on developing new products or services are most likely to see high top-bottom line growth. There's a caveat to this, however. Not all growth is created equally, and all growth comes at a cost. As an investor, there's also an accounting reality, and an economic one. A firm creates economic value when it generates a return on its investments above the cost of capital, other words, an economic profit ("EP"). There's a major difference between accounting profit [that in which is presented on the periodic financial statements] and a firm's EP. As investors, we're interested in EP over the former, as a cleaner measure of value. Why? It comes down the mechanics that drive value in the first place: a high return on invested capital ("ROIC"), that exceeds the cost of capital [positive EP], is the quintessential ingredient in the valuation recipe. It means a firm needs to reinvest lower portion of post-tax earnings to grow. It also illustrates it is investing well. Net-net, this means more residual cash [free cash flow, or FCF] is left for equity holders ("FCFE") - the cornerstone of corporate valuation. Charlie Munger, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, say's it well: "There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12%, and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12%, but all the excess cash must be reinvested - there's never any cash. It reminds me of the guy who looks at all of his equipment and says, 'There's all of my profit.' We hate that kind of business." The key thematic of this analysis: if ROIC is less than the cost of capital, then growth is actually destructive to value. Remember this for later. Alas, accounting profit does a poor job in capturing the hidden cost to equity holders - i.e., the reinvestment of post-tax earnings required to achieve a stated growth rate. Moreover, typical calculations of FCF miss the actual free cash flows that are distributable to equity holders. As a result, 'equity earnings' are often misrepresentative, and FCF is often overstated. It's also worth noting that companies with growth rates less than their ROIC can payout cash [either hypothetical, or in dividends/buybacks] to shareholders without jeopardizing growth. The market values Economic Profit, so it should The above preamble in mind, you'll be able to see in the following charts why we continue to see ALC as a hold. Don't get us wrong here - it's great company, with products in the same steed. Plus, it's growing operating income and earnings at an attractive rate. It's the questions of value and fair price that has us on the sidelines. Here's the premise of the value component: (1). First off, ALC is profitable and is steadily growing with decent operating margins above the sector median. Since listing, its stock has caught a decent bid as well. Looking at rolling TTM periods from Q1 FY20-Q3 FY22', ALC generated a cumulative $3.6Bn in net operating profit after tax ("NOPAT") and ~$2.4Bn in earnings [Exhibit 2]. This corresponded with an additional growth of $793mm and $388mm, respectively. Exhibit 2. ALC NOPAT and Earnings growth, FY20-FY22' [rolling TTM basis]. Note: Rolling TTM basis is used to provide an 11 period lookback, where each period is 12 months. (Data: Author, using data from ALC SEC Filings) (2). The returns on these numbers are impressive, as well. To achieve the above growth rates, it only had to invest an additional $492mm in capital, otherwise, 13.4% and 20.7% of NOPAT and earnings respectively. Consequently, it grew 21.5% over the testing period [33.35% of earnings]. As such, the return on incremental invested capital is high at >161%. The market values this kind of growth, hence, unsurprisingly, its stock price compounded at ~17% over time as well. As such, 79% of earnings has been distributable to equity holders. Exhibit 3. Substantial ROIIC from 13.4% reinvestment rate Data: Author, using data from ALC SEC Filings (3). As mentioned earlier, if a company sports a high ROIC, it can create value for shareholders. But remember, this only applies if the EP spread is positive, otherwise, the growth erodes the value to equity holders. You'll see in Exhibit 4 that, since Q3 FY21 at least, ALC has generated a ROIC less than the hurdle rate. Consequently, whilst it's been able to grow at a high rate, because its periodic ROIC [shown in Exhibit 2] haven't been accretive to its corporate or equity value. In fact, we postulate it's been value-destructive. This is in contrast with the incremental ROIC stated in Exhibit 3. Since Q3 FY21', ALC stock has re-rated heavily to the downside as a reflection of this [Exhibit 5]. Exhibit 4. Negative EP since FY21' Data: Author, using data from ALC SEC Filings Exhibit 5. Data: Updata (4). It's also worth noting that, when a firm grows faster than its ROIC, it must access external capital to fill the gap - either debt or equity (Mauboussin 2014; 2022). Because this is the case for ALC, we'd note that ALC priced a $1.3Bn debt offering last November. The issue, set in two tranches, will pay $600mm at a 5.375% coupon and $600mm at 5.750%, due in 2052. Per the release: "Net proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and to repay all or part of the outstanding indebtedness under its term loan facility."

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ALC - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202812,5771,6132,0052,80315
12/31/202711,8251,3801,8252,51322
12/31/202611,1291,0851,4712,22222
3/31/202610,6348191,5912,305N/A
12/31/202510,4019801,6082,271N/A
9/30/202510,1851,0471,3802,072N/A
6/30/202510,0251,0731,4152,095N/A
3/31/20259,9251,1201,4532,120N/A
12/31/20249,9111,0181,4072,077N/A
9/30/20249,7611,1611,2782,069N/A
6/30/20249,6361,1021,0861,849N/A
3/31/20249,5621,0487771,644N/A
12/31/20239,4559745351,388N/A
9/30/20239,2744505251,282N/A
6/30/20239,0853623171,157N/A
3/31/20238,8803414801,236N/A
12/31/20228,717335-131,217N/A
9/30/20228,695571-611,259N/A
6/30/20228,657457-171,273N/A
3/31/20228,550460-4061,255N/A
12/31/20218,2913761651,345N/A
9/30/20218,0823323221,397N/A
6/30/20217,8181833071,307N/A
3/31/20216,922-390364949N/A
12/31/20206,833-531256823N/A
9/30/20206,806-717132730N/A
6/30/20206,836-63662677N/A
3/31/20207,525-604275920N/A
12/31/20197,508-656N/A920N/A
9/30/20197,386-638N/A800N/A
6/30/20197,280-779N/A886N/A
3/31/20197,177-362N/A893N/A
12/31/20187,153-227N/A1,140N/A
9/30/20187,123175N/A1,375N/A
12/31/20176,792256N/A1,218N/A
12/31/20166,596-170N/A1,245N/A
12/31/20156,776308N/A1,370N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ALC's forecast earnings growth (18.1% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: ALC's earnings (18.1% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (17% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ALC's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ALC's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ALC's revenue (6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ALC's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (8.9%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/01 03:27
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/01 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcon Inc. is covered by 58 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
null nullBaird
Jeffrey JohnsonBaird