TransMedics Group, Inc. Just Recorded A 66% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

A week ago, TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMDX) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 11% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$114m, while EPS were US$0.35 beating analyst models by 66%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for TransMedics Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from TransMedics Group's nine analysts is for revenues of US$439.1m in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 1,189% to US$1.17. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$401.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.98 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about TransMedics Group's future following the latest results, with a nice gain to the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for TransMedics Group 11% to US$163on the back of these upgrades. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on TransMedics Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$200 and the most bearish at US$117 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the TransMedics Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 50% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 60% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that TransMedics Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards TransMedics Group following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TransMedics Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with TransMedics Group (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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