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OTRK

OntrakNasdaqGM:OTRK Stock Report

Market Cap

US$174.6m

7D

-2.0%

1Y

-86.3%

Updated

26 Oct, 2021

Data

Company Financials +
OTRK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation3/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends0/6

OTRK Overview

Ontrak, Inc. operates as an artificial intelligence powered, virtualized outpatient healthcare treatment company that provides in-person or telehealth intervention services to health plans and other third-party payors.

Ontrak Competitors

UpHealth

NYSE:UPH

US$271.2m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Ontrak
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$9.12
52 Week HighUS$8.46
52 Week LowUS$99.89
Beta2.15
1 Month Change-4.10%
3 Month Change-66.88%
1 Year Change-86.34%
3 Year Change6.42%
5 Year Change60.00%
Change since IPO-99.95%

Recent News & Updates

Oct 21

Ontrak: Why You Should Buy The Dip

Ontrak has a unique value proposition, which differentiates itself from other HealthTech companies. Shares are down 85% YTD, presenting a compelling valuation. Investors with a longer-term time horizon could see a potential triple digit upside.

Shareholder Returns

OTRKUS HealthcareUS Market
7D-2.0%5.3%1.9%
1Y-86.3%30.1%33.4%

Return vs Industry: OTRK underperformed the US Healthcare industry which returned 30.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: OTRK underperformed the US Market which returned 33.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is OTRK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
OTRK volatility
OTRK Beta2.15
Industry Beta0.87
Market Beta1

Stable Share Price: OTRK is more volatile than 75% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 15% a week.

Volatility Over Time: OTRK's weekly volatility (15%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
2003724Jonathan Mayhewhttps://www.ontrak-inc.com

Ontrak, Inc. operates as an artificial intelligence powered, virtualized outpatient healthcare treatment company that provides in-person or telehealth intervention services to health plans and other third-party payors. Its Ontrak PRE (Predict-Recommend-Engage) platform predicts people whose chronic disease will improve with behavior change, recommends care pathways that people are willing to follow, and engages people who aren’t getting the care they need. The company’s technology-enabled, OnTrak, program is designed to treat health plan members with unaddressed behavioral health conditions that cause or exacerbate chronic medical diseases, such as diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, COPD, and congestive heart failure.

Ontrak Fundamentals Summary

How do Ontrak's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
OTRK fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$174.63m
Earnings (TTM)-US$24.58m
Revenue (TTM)US$108.48m

1.6x

P/S Ratio

-7.1x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
OTRK income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$108.48m
Cost of RevenueUS$47.76m
Gross ProfitUS$60.72m
ExpensesUS$85.29m
Earnings-US$24.58m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Nov 04, 2021

Earnings per share (EPS)-1.28
Gross Margin55.97%
Net Profit Margin-22.65%
Debt/Equity Ratio79.3%

How did OTRK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Ontrak undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: OTRK ($9.12) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($18.35)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OTRK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: OTRK is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US Healthcare industry average.

PE vs Market: OTRK is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the US market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate OTRK's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: OTRK is good value based on its PB Ratio (3x) compared to the US Healthcare industry average (3.1x).


Future Growth

How is Ontrak forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

11.0%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: OTRK is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: OTRK is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: OTRK is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: OTRK's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: OTRK's revenue (3.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if OTRK's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time


Past Performance

How has Ontrak performed over the past 5 years?

-12.6%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: OTRK is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: OTRK is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: OTRK is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 12.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare OTRK's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: OTRK is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Healthcare industry (32.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: OTRK has a negative Return on Equity (-30.68%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Ontrak's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: OTRK's short term assets ($115.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($26.7M).

Long Term Liabilities: OTRK's short term assets ($115.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($47.6M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: OTRK's debt to equity ratio (79.3%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: OTRK had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: OTRK has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if OTRK has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Dividend

What is Ontrak current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate OTRK's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate OTRK's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OTRK's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if OTRK's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of OTRK's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jonathan Mayhew (57 yo)

0.50

Tenure

Mr. Jonathan Edwin Mayhew serves as the Chief Executive Officer at Ontrak, Inc. since April 12, 2021. He served as Executive Vice President & Chief Transformation Officer at CVS Health Corporation since Fe...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: OTRK's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: OTRK's board of directors are considered experienced (3 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: OTRK insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 10.1%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Ontrak, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Ontrak, Inc.
  • Ticker: OTRK
  • Exchange: NasdaqGM
  • Founded: 2003
  • Industry: Health Care Services
  • Sector: Healthcare
  • Market Cap: US$174.627m
  • Shares outstanding: 19.15m
  • Website: https://www.ontrak-inc.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Ontrak, Inc.
  • 2120 Colorado Avenue
  • Suite 230
  • Santa Monica
  • California
  • 90404
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/10/26 22:37
End of Day Share Price2021/10/26 00:00
Earnings2021/06/30
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.