Health Catalyst, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCAT) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Health Catalyst, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCAT) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$75m were in line with expectations,Health Catalyst lost US$0.35 a share in the process. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Health Catalyst

After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Health Catalyst are now predicting revenues of US$308.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 47% to US$0.96. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$308.6m and losses of US$0.99 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$11.79, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Health Catalyst at US$16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Health Catalyst's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Health Catalyst is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.79, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Health Catalyst going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Health Catalyst , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.