Is Aveanna’s Upbeat Results and Raised Guidance Shifting the Investment Case for AVAH?

• Earlier this week, Aveanna Healthcare Holdings announced third quarter 2025 results with revenue of US$621.94 million and net income of US$14.06 million, a turnaround from a net loss in the same period last year.
• Management also raised its full-year revenue outlook and highlighted successful payer negotiations, integrated acquisitions, and improved caregiver workforce stability as major factors supporting ongoing momentum.
• We’ll explore how Aveanna’s raised full-year revenue guidance signals shifting expectations for its investment narrative.

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Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

Owning shares in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings means believing in the long-term demand for home-based care and the company’s ability to deliver profitable growth despite pressures in wage costs and reimbursement rates. The recent Q3 earnings beat and raised revenue outlook lend support to the near-term growth catalyst, strong patient volumes and improved payer contracts, while still leaving Aveanna exposed to ongoing regulatory risks, particularly around Medicaid and Medicare funding, which remain material and should not be overlooked.

Aveanna’s updated guidance, with full-year revenue now expected above US$2.375 billion, builds on this momentum and underlines the importance of payer strategy and operational gains as short-term drivers. This announcement comes alongside successful integration of recent acquisitions and a more stable caregiver workforce, pointing to potential continued progress on margin and scale if current trends hold.

But in contrast to the headlines, investors should be aware that evolving state and federal reimbursement policy could...

Read the full narrative on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (it's free!)

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings is projected to reach $2.7 billion in revenue and $156.7 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes annual revenue growth of 7.2% and an increase in earnings of $138.1 million from the current level of $18.6 million.

Uncover how Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' forecasts yield a $9.61 fair value, a 10% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$4.29 to US$12.40 per share. While some anticipate upside based on rising patient demand, others caution that rate cut or regulatory risks could alter the story, so weigh multiple views before forming your own outlook.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings - why the stock might be worth as much as 42% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Aveanna Healthcare Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Aveanna Healthcare Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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