Why Astrana Health (ASTH) Cut Guidance Despite Strong Revenue Growth After Prospect Integration

• Astrana Health reported fiscal Q3 2025 results in the past, showing significant year-over-year revenue growth due to Prospect Health integration, but also lowered its full-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance amid anticipated Medicaid and exchange business headwinds.
• The reduction in guidance despite strong top-line momentum underscores the ongoing uncertainty facing value-based care operators exposed to government-backed health programs.
• We'll explore how Astrana Health's cautious outlook for its Medicaid segment may impact its investment narrative going forward.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Astrana Health Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Astrana Health, you need confidence in the company's ability to grow within value-based care, harness operational scale after integrating Prospect Health, and manage exposure to government-backed health programs. The recent reduction in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects near-term uncertainty in Medicaid, which could dampen the most important catalyst, expansion of risk-based contracts, while also highlighting reimbursement risk as the largest threat. The impact is material as it directly shapes both earnings potential and near-term sentiment.

Among Astrana Health’s recent updates, the November 2025 earnings guidance revision stands out. Management lowered its full-year outlook following Medicaid-related headwinds, which is directly relevant given that a significant portion of revenues depend on government payers and policy settings, a key driver of both risk and opportunity for the company in the period ahead.

In contrast, investors should be aware that even with revenue growth, exposure to shifting Medicaid funding requirements could...

Read the full narrative on Astrana Health (it's free!)

Astrana Health's outlook anticipates $4.5 billion in revenue and $148.7 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario relies on 23.3% annual revenue growth and a $123.4 million increase in earnings from the current $25.3 million level.

Uncover how Astrana Health's forecasts yield a $42.38 fair value, a 108% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three fair value calculations from the Simply Wall St Community put Astrana Health’s US$42.38 to US$73.57 range well above current pricing. As reimbursement risk now affects visibility on earnings, your fellow investors’ differing views highlight how broader policy shifts can reshape long-term expectations.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Astrana Health - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Astrana Health Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Astrana Health research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Astrana Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Astrana Health's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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