Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V.

OTCPK:GPAG.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.9b

Gruma. de Valuation

Is GPAG.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GPAG.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GPAG.F ($16.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($23.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GPAG.F is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GPAG.F?

Key metric: As GPAG.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GPAG.F. This is calculated by dividing GPAG.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GPAG.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12x
EarningsUS$497.37m
Market CapUS$5.95b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GPAG.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GPAG.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.9x
POST Post Holdings
18.3x7.6%US$6.7b
CALM Cal-Maine Foods
11.6x-44.9%US$5.0b
TWNK Hostess Brands
35x14.4%US$4.4b
LANC Lancaster Colony
30.7x9.9%US$5.0b
GPAG.F Gruma. de
12x7.0%US$120.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GPAG.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (20.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GPAG.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Food Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCEH Global Clean Energy Holdings
0.9xn/aUS$70.26m
SEED Origin Agritech
1.8xn/aUS$13.46m
IDBH.F Industrias Bachoco. de
0.02xn/aUS$9.65m
TWG Top Wealth Group Holding
2.4xn/aUS$5.59m
GPAG.F 12.0xIndustry Avg. 19.8xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GPAG.F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the US Food industry average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GPAG.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GPAG.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GPAG.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GPAG.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$19.79
0%
9.5%US$22.82US$14.93n/a12
Dec ’25n/a
US$19.46
0%
10.0%US$22.29US$14.91n/a13
Nov ’25US$17.85
US$19.40
+8.7%
10.0%US$22.31US$14.92n/a13
Oct ’25n/a
US$19.16
0%
11.3%US$22.58US$15.10n/a12
Sep ’25n/a
US$19.25
0%
11.3%US$22.91US$15.33n/a12
Aug ’25US$18.47
US$19.87
+7.6%
10.0%US$23.62US$16.16n/a13
Jul ’25n/a
US$19.58
0%
8.9%US$22.84US$16.61n/a13
Jun ’25n/a
US$20.69
0%
9.2%US$24.32US$17.69n/a14
May ’25US$19.50
US$20.69
+6.1%
9.2%US$24.32US$17.69n/a14
Apr ’25n/a
US$20.55
0%
8.8%US$24.52US$17.83n/a14
Mar ’25n/a
US$20.21
0%
8.5%US$24.19US$17.59n/a14
Feb ’25n/a
US$19.84
0%
8.4%US$22.22US$16.38n/a14
Jan ’25n/a
US$19.27
0%
8.2%US$21.75US$16.02n/a14
Dec ’24US$18.73
US$19.55
+4.4%
8.5%US$22.09US$16.28n/a13
Nov ’24n/a
US$18.77
0%
9.3%US$21.33US$15.51US$17.8513
Oct ’24US$14.96
US$18.79
+25.6%
12.0%US$21.93US$13.67n/a12
Sep ’24n/a
US$19.21
0%
11.7%US$22.53US$14.04n/a13
Aug ’24US$18.00
US$18.93
+5.2%
10.4%US$22.00US$14.23US$18.4713
Jul ’24US$13.81
US$17.75
+28.5%
12.4%US$21.33US$13.51n/a14
Jun ’24US$13.49
US$17.30
+28.3%
11.8%US$21.14US$13.39n/a14
May ’24n/a
US$16.50
0%
12.6%US$20.63US$13.35US$19.5014
Apr ’24n/a
US$16.16
0%
11.3%US$20.59US$13.65n/a13
Mar ’24n/a
US$15.34
0%
13.8%US$20.20US$11.43n/a14
Feb ’24n/a
US$14.82
0%
14.5%US$19.71US$11.16n/a14
Jan ’24US$13.75
US$13.93
+1.3%
14.8%US$18.73US$10.60n/a14
Dec ’23n/a
US$14.02
0%
15.0%US$19.21US$10.36US$18.7313

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 12:29
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/11 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. is covered by 27 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Antonio Hernandez Velez LeijaActinver Case de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.
Benjamin TheurerBarclays
Jose De La Luz LopezBarclays