Earnings Miss: Ingredion Incorporated Missed EPS By 8.8% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE:INGR), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Ingredion missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$1.8b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.61, falling short by 3.9% and 8.8% respectively. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Ingredion's five analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$7.33b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.2% to US$11.30. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.55b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.60 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Ingredion

The consensus price target fell 13% to US$124, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Ingredion analyst has a price target of US$130 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$119. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ingredion's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 0.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ingredion.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ingredion analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Ingredion is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.