How Investors Are Reacting To Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Weak Sales, Net Loss and Soft 2026 Outlook

• The Simply Good Foods Company recently reported earnings for the fourth quarter and full year ended August 30, 2025, revealing a quarterly year-over-year sales decline to US$369.04 million and a swing to a net loss of US$12.36 million, while offering a 2026 outlook of flat to slightly lower revenue and reduced gross margins.
• A key insight is that the company is facing ongoing inflationary pressures in ingredients and tariffs, with operational challenges in its Atkins brand affecting profitability, even as it invests in new product innovation and share repurchases.
• We'll explore how the softer 2026 guidance and Atkins brand headwinds could shape Simply Good Foods' investment thesis going forward.

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Simply Good Foods Investment Narrative Recap

Owning shares of Simply Good Foods means believing in the company’s ability to revitalize its Atkins brand while leveraging innovation and new products to spark consistent growth, even as cost pressures mount. The latest results, with a swing to quarterly loss and a forecast for flat or declining revenue in 2026, place the spotlight firmly on the Atkins turnaround as the key short-term catalyst, while persistent ingredient inflation and margin pressures now represent the biggest risk; these developments are material and impact the near-term narrative. Among recent company updates, the expansion of the share buyback program stands out, signaling the company’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders even as profits face headwinds; however, this move does not address underlying operational challenges, particularly within Atkins, that could shape the trajectory of any potential recovery. Yet, it’s important for investors to watch closely as ongoing weakness in Atkins sales could ...

Read the full narrative on Simply Good Foods (it's free!)

Simply Good Foods is expected to reach $1.6 billion in revenue and $204.1 million in earnings by 2028. This projection requires 4.1% annual revenue growth and a $58.8 million increase in earnings from the current $145.3 million.

Uncover how Simply Good Foods' forecasts yield a $35.20 fair value, a 80% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate fair value for Simply Good Foods between US$35.20 and US$58.10, highlighting the wide spread of opinions. Amid these differing views, ongoing Atkins brand challenges and margin pressures continue to influence the company’s outlook and long-term potential for improvement.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Simply Good Foods - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Simply Good Foods Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Simply Good Foods research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Simply Good Foods research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Simply Good Foods' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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