Here's Why We Think Coca-Cola Consolidated's (NASDAQ:COKE) Statutory Earnings Might Be Conservative

It might be old fashioned, but we really like to invest in companies that make a profit, each and every year. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Coca-Cola Consolidated (NASDAQ:COKE).

We like the fact that Coca-Cola Consolidated made a profit of US$95.9m on its revenue of US$4.91b, in the last year.

See our latest analysis for Coca-Cola Consolidated

Of course, when it comes to statutory profit, the devil is often in the detail, and we can get a better sense for a company by diving deeper into the financial statements. As a result, today we're going to take a closer look at Coca-Cola Consolidated's cashflow, and unusual items, with a view to understanding what these might tell us about its statutory profit. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Coca-Cola Consolidated.

Examining Cashflow Against Coca-Cola Consolidated's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to September 2020, Coca-Cola Consolidated recorded an accrual ratio of -0.13. That implies it has good cash conversion, and implies that its free cash flow solidly exceeded its profit last year. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$277m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$95.9m. Coca-Cola Consolidated's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Coca-Cola Consolidated's profit was reduced by unusual items worth US$59m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. This is what you'd expect to see where a company has a non-cash charge reducing paper profits. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect Coca-Cola Consolidated to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On Coca-Cola Consolidated's Profit Performance

In conclusion, both Coca-Cola Consolidated's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative. Based on these factors, we think Coca-Cola Consolidated's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that Coca-Cola Consolidated has 3 warning signs (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

After our examination into the nature of Coca-Cola Consolidated's profit, we've come away optimistic for the company. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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