ECA Marcellus Trust I

OTCPK:ECTM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$8.1m

ECA Marcellus Trust I Valuation

Is ECTM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ECTM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ECTM ($0.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ECTM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ECTM?

Key metric: As ECTM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ECTM. This is calculated by dividing ECTM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ECTM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.5x
EarningsUS$971.65k
Market CapUS$8.05m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ECTM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ECTM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.6x
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.3m
MARP.S Marine Petroleum Trust
11.1xn/aUS$7.8m
CHKR Chesapeake Granite Wash Trust
4.9xn/aUS$21.5m
ALTX Altex Industries
6.1xn/aUS$2.7m
ECTM ECA Marcellus Trust I
8.5xn/aUS$8.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ECTM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ECTM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.09xn/aUS$10.27m
BYRO.F Byron Energy
0.03x-10.3%US$312.17k
USOP.Y U.S. Oil and Gas
n/an/aUS$6.00
No more companies available in this PE range
ECTM 8.5xIndustry Avg. 11.7xNo. of Companies19PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ECTM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ECTM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ECTM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.5x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ECTM's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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