Carnarvon Energy Limited

OTCPK:CVON.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$167.3m

Carnarvon Energy Valuation

Is CVON.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CVON.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CVON.F's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate CVON.F's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CVON.F?

Key metric: As CVON.F is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for CVON.F. This is calculated by dividing CVON.F's market cap by their current book value.
What is CVON.F's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1x
BookAU$266.33m
Market CapAU$268.36m

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does CVON.F's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for CVON.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.6x
EPM Evolution Petroleum
2.1xn/aUS$163.3m
SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
66.7xn/aUS$178.5m
EP Empire Petroleum
4.3xn/aUS$245.5m
PHX PHX Minerals
1.2x89.3%US$146.5m
CVON.F Carnarvon Energy
1x-46.7%US$268.4m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: CVON.F is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (18.6x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does CVON.F's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Oil and Gas Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IMPP Imperial Petroleum
0.2x35.5%US$86.14m
TOPS Top Ships
0.2xn/aUS$28.45m
AXAS Abraxas Petroleum
0.06xn/aUS$10.27m
LNGN.F LNG Energy Group
0.2xn/aUS$6.23m
CVON.F 1.0xIndustry Avg. 1.4xNo. of Companies31PB012345+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: CVON.F is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (1.4x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CVON.F's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CVON.F PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CVON.F's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CVON.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
US$0.15
0%
15.0%US$0.18US$0.12n/a5
Dec ’25n/a
US$0.16
0%
15.0%US$0.19US$0.13n/a5
Nov ’25n/a
US$0.16
0%
15.0%US$0.19US$0.13n/a5
Oct ’25n/a
US$0.16
0%
14.4%US$0.20US$0.14n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
US$0.15
0%
15.8%US$0.20US$0.13n/a6
Aug ’25US$0.12
US$0.15
+29.5%
15.2%US$0.19US$0.12n/a6
Jul ’25US$0.14
US$0.15
+9.6%
14.4%US$0.19US$0.13n/a6
Jun ’25US$0.14
US$0.15
+13.6%
14.4%US$0.19US$0.13n/a6
May ’25n/a
US$0.15
0%
14.4%US$0.18US$0.12n/a6
Apr ’25US$0.13
US$0.15
+16.1%
14.4%US$0.18US$0.12n/a6
Mar ’25US$0.12
US$0.15
+29.6%
11.7%US$0.17US$0.13n/a6
Feb ’25US$0.14
US$0.15
+10.3%
11.7%US$0.17US$0.13n/a6
Jan ’25US$0.15
US$0.15
+2.5%
10.6%US$0.17US$0.13n/a6
Dec ’24US$0.12
US$0.13
+14.8%
25.5%US$0.17US$0.065n/a6
Nov ’24n/a
US$0.13
0%
25.5%US$0.17US$0.064n/a6
Oct ’24n/a
US$0.14
0%
18.7%US$0.17US$0.09n/a6
Sep ’24n/a
US$0.14
0%
18.7%US$0.17US$0.092n/a6
Aug ’24US$0.094
US$0.15
+55.0%
19.3%US$0.18US$0.094US$0.126
Jul ’24n/a
US$0.15
0%
19.9%US$0.17US$0.093US$0.146
Jun ’24n/a
US$0.15
0%
17.0%US$0.17US$0.11US$0.146
May ’24US$0.084
US$0.15
+78.2%
16.5%US$0.17US$0.11n/a6
Apr ’24US$0.085
US$0.15
+74.9%
16.5%US$0.17US$0.11US$0.136
Mar ’24n/a
US$0.14
0%
30.3%US$0.18US$0.054US$0.127
Feb ’24n/a
US$0.14
0%
29.5%US$0.20US$0.056US$0.147
Jan ’24US$0.10
US$0.13
+29.2%
29.4%US$0.19US$0.053US$0.157
Dec ’23n/a
US$0.13
0%
29.8%US$0.19US$0.054US$0.127

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 21:52
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Carnarvon Energy Limited is covered by 14 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Johan HedstromBell Potter