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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty TrustOTCPK:BPPT.U Stock Report

Market Cap US$4.8m
Share Price
n/a
1Y-79.5%
7D-0.4%
1D0.04%
Portfolio Value
​
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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust

OTCPK:BPPT.U Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.8m

This company listing is no longer active

This company may still be operating, however this listing is no longer active. Find out why through their latest events.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPPT.U) Stock Overview

Operates as a grantor trust in the United States. More details

BPPT.U fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation0/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months compared to the US market

Earnings have declined by 13% per year over past 5 years

Makes less than USD$1m in revenue ($185K)

Does not have a meaningful market cap ($5M)


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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$0.23
52 Week HighUS$1.45
52 Week LowUS$0.04
Beta-1.31
1 Month Change62.67%
3 Month Change34.06%
1 Year Change-79.52%
3 Year Change-98.36%
5 Year Change-82.93%
Change since IPO-99.14%

Recent News & Updates

Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust To Liquidate Assets For Less Than Market Price

Summary BPT Trustee announces forced termination and asset liquidation. SOTP valuation suggests the equity is most likely to get wiped out. Best-case valuation results in a near term price target of $0.30/share. Shares may trade sideways, but are likely to gap down on news. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jan 15

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust To Liquidate Assets For Less Than Market Price

Summary BPT Trustee announces forced termination and asset liquidation. SOTP valuation suggests the equity is most likely to get wiped out. Best-case valuation results in a near term price target of $0.30/share. Shares may trade sideways, but are likely to gap down on news. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 12

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Likely Termination This Year With No Further Distributions

Summary BP Prudhoe Bay's Trustee, The Bank of New York Mellon, announced that BPT will make no quarterly distribution in January for the fourth consecutive quarter. This is due to oil prices again being less than the artificially high and rapidly increasing chargeable cost the Trust must pay. The breakeven price has increased by more than $7 as of January 1; oil must now average $93 or more for BPT to breakeven; oil is now under $75. The Trustee's reserve for administrative expenses would need to be replenished if BPT does make a profit, increasing the minimum oil price required for unit owners to actually receive a payment by $1.50-$2 or more. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 11

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty: Call Option Like Gamble On Higher Crude Oil

Summary A tighter crude oil market is predicted by industry tracking groups into next summer, creating the potential for sharply higher prices. BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust holds serious investment leverage to rising crude oil prices, weighted against abnormal royalty company risks. BPT's low-revenue termination clause and high breakeven cost structure are worries, but a spike in crude oil quotes could make it a top-performing investment. In many respects, BPT represents something akin to a call option on crude oil, expiring in 1-3 years. Invest with caution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 14

BP Prudhoe Bay: The Termination Clock Is Ticking

Summary BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty has had no net revenue in the first two quarters of 2023. It will likely not have any net revenue in the third quarter either. If BPT has less than $1 million/yr. of net revenue for two years, the Trust is terminated and Trust owners receive no further compensation. The breakeven oil price which generates revenue is $10 above the current WTI level of about $75 per barrel. The Trust incurs an artificial and rapidly increasing cost which places it at substantial risk of legal termination after Q4 2024 results are announced. If oil prices do rally substantially, there are much better alternative investments in the oil patch. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 02

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: A Likely Buy In 2023

Summary BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust will likely see its stock rise in the near term as WTI is expected to rise. However, future distributions would likely be much smaller than last year's distributions unless WTI spikes. Without a spike in WTI, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust stock could fall significantly by 2025 and could be terminated by 2027. During times of high volatility and bearish market conditions, investors tend to run to safety. Cash, gold, and dividend/distribution producing stocks are all considered potential safe havens. Like MLPs, royalty trusts enjoy big tax breaks and pass on big distributions to investors. Is BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT), which drills from the largest oil field in North America and had a massive distribution of 32.34% over the last twelve months, a good buy? How much future distributions can an investor expect? And do the distributions justify the stock price? Is it a good buy? As shown in the graph below, when superimposing the distribution history and the WTI graph from Trading Economics over the stock’s price graph, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust's stock price did follow the WTI fairly well from 1996 to 2016. After 2016, WTI increased and decreased much more than the stock. But the stock’s short-term moves seem to still follow WTI. The distribution history also followed WTI, but to a lesser extent than the stock price. Seeking Alpha and Trading Economics Thus, the stock will probably rise in the short term, since WTI is expected to rise. President Biden probably created a floor for WTI when he said in October that the he plans to purchase oil to refill the Strategic Oil Reserve at $67 to $72/barrel. Purchases and deliveries are expected to start early in 2023. Economists estimate Saudi Arabia needs oil to be at least $75 to $80/barrel to balance its budget. Speculation is that Russia is planning to send another flood of troops into Ukraine in January and February of 2023 and try again to take the capital. This could cause another oil spike. Plus, oil has a tendency to rise as summer driving season approaches. Using their global macro models, Trading Economics’ analysts estimate that WTI will be at $94.09 by January of 2024 . The U.S. Energy Information Agency (U.S. EIA) predicts Brent crude oil will average at $92/barrel in 2023. Brent crude oil is currently at $85.91/barrel, while WTI is currently at $80.26/barrel. Assuming Brent is about $5/barrel more than WTI, the U.S. EIA is predicting an average WTI price of $87/barrel in 2023. Goldman Sachs predicts Brent will average $90/barrel in the first quarter of 2023 and $95/barrel in the second quarter of 2023. Using the same assumption as above, Goldman is predicting WTI to average $85 and $90/barrel in the first and second quarters of 2023, respectively. Predicting the long-term price of oil is almost impossible. But using the mathematical and statistical models from the Economy Forecast Agency, WTI is predicted to average $82/barrel in 2024, $106/barrel in 2025, and $100/barrel in 2026. While it looks like the stock will rise by the end of the quarter and the end of the year, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust stock will probably fall to about $10.51/share over the next week based on the stock’s lower Bollinger Band as shown in the stock’s technical graph below. Support is also about $10.51/share, and resistance is about $14.43/share. The MACD looks like it could form a bearish downward cross soon. The W%R does look like the stock is quickly approaching oversold. However, all five times when the RSI, W%R, and MACD were at similar levels, as shown by the orange lines, the stock fell. Stockcharts How much distributions can an investor expect? The table below is compiled from the company’s 10-K and 10-Q SEC documents. It shows how distributions are calculated. Distributions are based on the royalty revenue received from the previous quarter’s royalty production. If the average per barrel royalty becomes zero or negative (highlighted in red), the cash distribution will be zero. SEC documents The royalty percentage stays fixed at 16.4246%. The average per barrel royalty is equal to the average WTI price minus the adjusted chargeable cost and the average production taxes. Thus, there are four variables that determine the royalty production, which is directly correlated with the cash distribution. Three of those four variables move in nearly a straight line as shown in the graph below. SEC documents
Seeking Alpha • Oct 13

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust goes ex-dividend tomorrow

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) had declared $0.7031/share quarterly dividend, -50% decrease from prior dividend of $1.4050. Payable Oct. 19; for shareholders of record Oct. 17; ex-div Oct. 14. See BPT Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 14

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Looking Over The Edge Of A Cliff

BPT's projected distributions at $90 spot oil is less than $3. After the October distribution, projected distributions at $85 oil will total less than $1 with no value at termination. Only a sustained oil rally for many years can salvage unitholder capital. If oil does rally, BPT represents terrible relative value to alternative oil investments. Background/Thesis For a brief background, the BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) was formed in 1989 with the sole purpose of administering the Royalty Interest. The Royalty Interest entitles the Trust to a royalty on 16.4246% on the first 90,000 barrels in the Prudhoe Bay Field from the working interest of BP Alaska. After subtracting expenses which mostly consist of a chargeable cost multiplied by a cost adjustment factor (inflation protection), production taxes, and administrative costs then the per barrel royalty is calculated and paid out to unit holders each quarter as a distribution. Every quarter the Royalty Interest resets which means it won't carry a debt even if the per barrel royalty was negative. Its important to know there is no management team, there are no additional assets, the trustee merely passes on the cash flow generated by the Royalty Interest. How Trusts Trade After a decade of trading O&G trusts there are two facts I've learned. The first is that retail investors make up much of the unitholder base. The second is that these unitholders rarely understand what they own. To truly know an oil and gas trust an investor needs to read through the prospectus and annual reports. There are many variables that can substantially change the value of the trust. Those variables include, but are not limited to, the royalty interest, operator(s), location of assets, transportation cost, ability to drill more wells, any current lawsuits, and the termination clause. It can take tens of hours of research to fully understand a single trust. It is far easier for investors to trade trusts solely on the yield which is exactly what they do. In BPT's case, the most important variables today are the chargeable cost and cost adjustment factor. Between inflation and an ever increasing chargeable cost the per barrel royalty needs higher oil prices to pay out distributions. Previous Seeking Alpha articles have gone into detail on this and I suggest reading the annual report and all attached notes to understand how it works. The retail investing base mostly ignores this crucial aspect and instead opts to trade BPT based on its expected future yield for the next 2-4 quarters. Historically, BPT unitholders demand anywhere from 10% to 30% yield. When there is no yield, it trades under $5 as a call option on oil. In this article I want to focus on that future yield and why BPT is looking over the edge of a cliff. What $90 Oil Means For BPT Due to high inflation, the break even oil price continues to rise for BPT. At $90 oil, to maintain an average 15% yield the trust needs to go from $15 to $5 over the following twelve months. At that point, it should go back to trading as a CALL option on oil. Adding in distributions, it's a 50% hair cut on capital if oil doesn't move higher from today's price. The chart below shows previous months based on old monthly oil prices to show the correlation between the future yield and unit price. For the first half of 2022, the future yield fluctuated between 15% to 30% as the monthly price for oil went from $83.22 to $114.84. For BPT to maintain a 15% future yield at $90 oil, the unit price needs to fall 40% by the end of the year. Personal Excel Model In a more efficient and logical investing world, BPT would trade on its discounted future cash flow. Even though the recent correlation is weak, I wanted to include the chart to inform unitholders of the expected capital they will get back if they hold at $90 oil. The expected stock price is based on the 15% yield so it slowly retraces down toward the total expected payouts. In early 2022, the total payout was almost even to the unit price. By July, the units traded 50% higher than its expected payout. Today, the discount is hovering around 25% which means BPT trades at a massive premium. Personal Excel Model What $85 Oil Means for BPT Most people search for investments that are leveraged to the upside. Sadly for BPT unitholders, this is the opposite of that. With a less than 10% drop in oil BPT's price would need to drop to $5 to get a future 15% yield after the October distribution. For the expected distribution of $1, investors today are risking $10/unit or over half their capital. Below is a chart showing the future expected unit price at $85 oil and a 15% yield. Notice the difference in how steep the sell off would need to be to achieve a similar yield to today. Personal Excel Model What $110 Oil Means for BPT There is certainly a possibility that oil heads higher which will cause the future yield to go up. In this scenario, BPT owners will likely have a chance to sell at a profit as long as they don't make their investment a long-term hold. However, this scenario is short lived unless oil continues to outpace the chargeable cost. Below is a chart showing what BPT would do at $110 oil and a future 20% yield. The final expected price does not include the approximate $6 in distributions over the next 4-5 quarters. I also included the terminal value to show the downside at $110 for anyone holding beyond 2023. In my opinion, the upside would be limited to a short-term burst in the stock price and only last a year. Personal Excel Model What $150 Oil Means for BPT If you are ultra bullish on oil and believe $150 oil is attainable, I included the expected payout from 2022 to 2030. The amount received would be around a 300% return or a 56% IRR. After 2030, the payouts are pennies each quarter.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 05

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust raises 29.3% to$1.405/share

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT) declares $1.405/share quarterly dividend, 29.3% increase from prior dividend of $1.087. Forward yield 28.1% Payable July 20; for shareholders of record July 15; ex-div July 14. See BPT Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • May 26

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: A Deeply Discounted Option On Oil

BPT has huge operating leverage to the oil price as it does not hedge. The royalty income from Alaska oil wells is automatically paid to shareholders as a dividend each quarter. When pricing the future dividends as a series of call options, it trades at a steep discount to fair value of over 50%.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 04

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: A January Distribution Estimate Update

In late October, I provided an estimate of BPT's upcoming January distribution based upon data available then. Now that the quarter is over, I provide a slightly revised estimate. I now calculate that the distribution will likely be about $.56 rather than about $.71 per unit. This still leaves unanswered the interesting question is to what the unit price will do when the actual amount is announced in the upcoming week. Even at $.56, the resulting "annualized yield" will appear to be fantastic, although for "those in the know," there are structural headwinds for future cash distributions. I suspect those headwinds will matter little to the unit price though, nor are likely to be materially impacted by me mentioning these risks here.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 25

BP Prudhoe Bay: It May Be Time For A Short-Term Long Trade

If WTI remains above $80 this quarter, the January distribution is likely to be over $.70, an "annualized yield" around 70% at its current price of about $4.00. BPT trades on perceived yield. However, BPT's structure will cause the payments to be much less next year and may cease in 2023 if WTI continues to average near $80. Considering these factors, there is likely an opportunity for a short-term trade here, buying now and possibly selling after the January distribution. Barring a further material increase in WTI, holding until termination is likely a losing proposition, however. But first, a positive comment on BP Prudhoe Bay's greatly improved quarterly distribution press release and a comment on its structure.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 23

BP Prudhoe Bay's 10-Q Confirms My Prior Warnings

BPT's June 30 10-Q confirms that the Trust's actual breakeven figures are higher than what the Trustee has been reporting in its press releases due to quarterly CPI increases. The Trustee also issued a warning that there will be no distributions until its cash reserve account reaches at least $6 million, a $4.2 million increase from the current level. This announcement, combined with WTI currently being less than $63 per barrel, makes it unlikely there will be any distribution this quarter. Unless WTI increases materially, there is considerable risk of minimal, or possibly even no payments in the future.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 19

BP Prudhoe Bay's Misleading Press Release

In the press release issued by BNY-Mellon, BPT's Trustee, on July 7, reported that on January 1, 2021, the "break-even" WTI price was $60.72. However, the "break-even" WTI price changes each quarter based upon CPI changes. The actual break-even for the quarter just ended appears to have been about $63 based upon $3.2 million in reported earnings for the quarter. Based upon reported volumes, the per barrel earnings must have been about $3.02 and the break-even must have been about $63. Break-even for Q3 is likely to be about $65 per barrel.

Shareholder Returns

BPPT.UUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D-0.4%-0.4%1.6%
1Y-79.5%18.0%18.6%

Return vs Industry: BPPT.U underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned -2.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BPPT.U underperformed the US Market which returned 16.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BPPT.U's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BPPT.U volatility
BPPT.U Average Weekly Movement22.0%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement6.2%
Market Average Movement7.3%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: BPPT.U's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: BPPT.U's weekly volatility (22%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of US stocks.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
1989n/an/abpt.q4web.com/home/default.aspx

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust operates as a grantor trust in the United States. It is involved in holding overriding royalty interest in the Prudhoe Bay oil field located on the North Slope of Alaska. The Prudhoe Bay field extends approximately 12 miles by 27 miles and contains approximately 150,000 gross productive acres.

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Fundamentals Summary

How do BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BPPT.U fundamental statistics
Market capUS$4.82m
Earnings (TTM)-US$1.42m
Revenue (TTM)US$185.00k
26.1x
P/S Ratio
-3.4x
P/E Ratio

Is BPPT.U overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
BPPT.U income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$185.00k
Cost of RevenueUS$0
Gross ProfitUS$185.00k
Other ExpensesUS$1.61m
Earnings-US$1.42m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2025

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.066
Gross Margin100.00%
Net Profit Margin-767.57%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did BPPT.U perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/22 02:36
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/20 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is covered by 2 analysts. 0 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard RoyCitigroup Inc
Gabriel DaoudJ.P. Morgan