There Is A Reason Exxon Mobil Corporation's (NYSE:XOM) Price Is Undemanding

Exxon Mobil Corporation's (NYSE:XOM) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 9.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 32x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

Exxon Mobil has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Exxon Mobil

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Exxon Mobil.

How Is Exxon Mobil's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as Exxon Mobil's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 18%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 1,224% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 3.1% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 13% growth per annum, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's understandable that Exxon Mobil's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Exxon Mobil's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Exxon Mobil (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.