Upcoming Dividend • May 28
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 June 2026. Payment date: 25 June 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 45% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 2.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.2%). Lower than average of industry peers (3.3%). Declared Dividend • May 11
First quarter dividend of CA$0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.60. Ex-date: 4th June 2026 Payment date: 25th June 2026 Dividend yield will be 2.9%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (45% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (39% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 26% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • May 06
First quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2026 results: EPS: CA$1.77 (up from CA$1.36 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: CA$14.5b (up 18% from 1Q 2025). Net income: CA$2.10b (up 24% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 14% (in line with 1Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 9.5%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.3% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 30% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Apr 22
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 05, 2026 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results at 7:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on May 05, 2026 New Risk • Mar 30
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.04% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.04% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risk Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Reported Earnings • Mar 02
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: CA$4.86. Revenue: CA$48.9b (down 3.5% from FY 2024). Net income: CA$5.92b (down 1.6% from FY 2024). Profit margin: 12% (in line with FY 2024). Oil reserves Proven reserves: 4125 MMbbls Combined production Oil equivalent production: 313.973 MMboe (302.074 MMboe in FY 2024) Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 5.1%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 4.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 25
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 March 2026. Payment date: 25 March 2026. Payout ratio is a comfortable 48% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.1%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.2%). In line with average of industry peers (3.4%). Declared Dividend • Feb 06
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.60. Ex-date: 4th March 2026 Payment date: 25th March 2026 Dividend yield will be 3.5%, which is lower than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (48% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (41% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.9% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 17% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • Feb 05
Suncor Energy Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 05, 2026 Suncor Energy Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 05, 2026. Announcement • Jan 21
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q4, 2025 Results on Feb 03, 2026 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2025 results at 7:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Feb 03, 2026 Announcement • Dec 14
Suncor Energy Inc. Provides Production Guidance for 2026 Suncor Energy Inc. provided production guidance for 2026. For the year, the company expects total production to be 840,000 bbls/d to 870,000 bbls/d. Upcoming Dividend • Nov 26
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.60 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 03 December 2025. Payment date: 24 December 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 53% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.5%). In line with average of industry peers (4.1%). Declared Dividend • Nov 07
Third quarter dividend of CA$0.60 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.60. Ex-date: 3rd December 2025 Payment date: 24th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.3%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is covered by both earnings (53% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (36% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.9% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 11% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. New Risk • Nov 06
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 11% Last year net profit margin: 16% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (11% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Nov 06
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$1.34 (down from CA$1.59 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: CA$12.6b (down 2.6% from 3Q 2024). Net income: CA$1.62b (down 20% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 13% (down from 16% in 3Q 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 15%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 3.2% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 9% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Oct 22
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Nov 04, 2025 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Nov 04, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • Aug 28
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.57 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 September 2025. Payment date: 25 September 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 49% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.4%). In line with average of industry peers (4.0%). Declared Dividend • Aug 08
Second quarter dividend of CA$0.57 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.57. Ex-date: 4th September 2025 Payment date: 25th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.6%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (49% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (33% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 10% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Aug 06
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$0.93 (down from CA$1.22 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: CA$12.0b (down 7.0% from 2Q 2024). Net income: CA$1.13b (down 28% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 9.5% (down from 12% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 7.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 23%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 3.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 8% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 8% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Jul 23
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q2, 2025 Results on Aug 05, 2025 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2025 results at 7:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Aug 05, 2025 Upcoming Dividend • May 28
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.57 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 June 2025. Payment date: 25 June 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 46% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Within top quartile of American dividend payers (4.7%). Higher than average of industry peers (4.2%). Declared Dividend • May 09
First quarter dividend of CA$0.57 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.57. Ex-date: 4th June 2025 Payment date: 25th June 2025 Dividend yield will be 5.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (46% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (31% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 7.4% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 7.5% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Announcement • May 09
Suncor Energy Declares Quarterly Dividend, Payable on June 25, 2025 Suncor Energy’s Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share on its common shares, payable June 25, 2025 to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 4, 2025. Reported Earnings • May 07
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: CA$1.36 (up from CA$1.25 in 1Q 2024). Revenue: CA$12.3b (flat on 1Q 2024). Net income: CA$1.69b (up 4.9% from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 14% (in line with 1Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 9.1%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 3.6%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 1% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year. Announcement • Apr 23
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 06, 2025 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results at 7:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on May 06, 2025 Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 08
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to US$31.54, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Total returns to shareholders of 10% over the past three years. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 25
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.57 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 March 2025. Payment date: 25 March 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 47% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.1%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.5%). In line with average of industry peers (4.0%). Declared Dividend • Feb 09
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.57 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.57. Ex-date: 4th March 2025 Payment date: 25th March 2025 Dividend yield will be 4.6%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (47% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (30% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 9.5% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to grow by 14% over the next 3 years, which should provide support to the dividend and adequate earnings cover. Reported Earnings • Feb 06
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: EPS: CA$4.72 (down from CA$6.34 in FY 2023). Revenue: CA$51.1b (up 4.2% from FY 2023). Net income: CA$6.02b (down 28% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 12% (down from 17% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 10.0%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 3.8%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 8% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 10% per year. Announcement • Feb 06
Suncor Energy Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 06, 2025 Suncor Energy Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 06, 2025. Announcement • Jan 23
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q4, 2024 Results on Feb 05, 2025 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2024 results After-Market on Feb 05, 2025 Announcement • Dec 14
Suncor Energy Inc. Provides Production Guidance for the Full Year 2025 Suncor Energy Inc. provided production guidance for the full year 2025. For the year, the company expects total production to be in range of 810,000 boe/d - 840,000 boe/d. Declared Dividend • Nov 15
Third quarter dividend of CA$0.57 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.57. Ex-date: 3rd December 2024 Payment date: 24th December 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.4%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (35% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (31% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 11% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 25% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 61% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • Nov 13
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$1.59 (up from CA$1.19 in 3Q 2023). Revenue: CA$13.1b (up 3.3% from 3Q 2023). Net income: CA$2.02b (up 31% from 3Q 2023). Profit margin: 16% (up from 12% in 3Q 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 29%. Revenue is expected to decline by 3.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 3.1%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year whereas the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year. Announcement • Oct 23
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 12, 2024 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results at 7:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Nov 12, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Aug 28
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.55 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 September 2024. Payment date: 25 September 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 37% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.0%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.3%). In line with average of industry peers (4.0%). Declared Dividend • Aug 09
Second quarter dividend of CA$0.55 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.55. Ex-date: 4th September 2024 Payment date: 25th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.4%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (37% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (32% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 11% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 11% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 59% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Aug 08
Suncor Energy Inc. announces Quarterly dividend, payable on September 25, 2024 Suncor Energy Inc. announced Quarterly dividend of CAD 0.5450 per share payable on September 25, 2024, ex-date on September 04, 2024 and record date on September 04, 2024. Reported Earnings • Aug 07
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$1.22 (down from CA$1.44 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: CA$13.0b (up 11% from 2Q 2023). Net income: CA$1.57b (down 17% from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 12% (down from 16% in 2Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 8.5%. Revenue is expected to decline by 2.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to grow by 1.9%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 31% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 25% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Jul 24
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 06, 2024 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q2, 2024 results at 7:00 PM, US Eastern Standard Time on Aug 06, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • May 28
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.55 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 04 June 2024. Payment date: 25 June 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 35% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.9%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.7%). In line with average of industry peers (4.0%). Declared Dividend • May 10
First quarter dividend of CA$0.55 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.55. Ex-date: 4th June 2024 Payment date: 25th June 2024 Dividend yield will be 4.3%, which is about the same as the industry average. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (35% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (35% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 11% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 22% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 61% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Reported Earnings • May 08
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2024 results: EPS: CA$1.25 (down from CA$1.54 in 1Q 2023). Revenue: CA$12.5b (up 5.2% from 1Q 2023). Net income: CA$1.61b (down 22% from 1Q 2023). Profit margin: 13% (down from 17% in 1Q 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 6.4%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 2.1% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 45% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 01
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 15% to US$37.65. The fair value is estimated to be US$47.07, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 24% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.4% per annum. Earnings are forecast to decline by 13% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Apr 24
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 07, 2024 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 07, 2024 Reported Earnings • Mar 23
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: EPS: CA$6.34 (down from CA$6.54 in FY 2022). Revenue: CA$49.1b (down 16% from FY 2022). Net income: CA$8.30b (down 8.6% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 17% (up from 16% in FY 2022). Oil reserves Proven reserves: 4474 MMbbls Combined production Oil equivalent production: 272 MMboe Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 31%. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 1.7% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 65% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 19% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Declared Dividend • Feb 25
Fourth quarter dividend of CA$0.55 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of CA$0.55. Ex-date: 1st March 2024 Payment date: 25th March 2024 Dividend yield will be 5.1%, which is higher than the industry average of 4.5%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is well covered by both earnings (33% earnings payout ratio) and cash flows (44% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 11% per year over the past 10 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. EPS is expected to decline by 35% over the next 3 years. However, it would need to fall by 63% to increase the payout ratio to a potentially unsustainable range. Announcement • Feb 09
Suncor Energy Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 07, 2024 Suncor Energy Inc., Annual General Meeting, May 07, 2024. Announcement • Dec 29
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q4, 2023 Results on Feb 21, 2024 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q4, 2023 results on Feb 21, 2024 Upcoming Dividend • Nov 23
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.55 per share at 4.8% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 30 November 2023. Payment date: 22 December 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 33% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.8%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (5.0%). In line with average of industry peers (4.5%). Announcement • Nov 22
Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU) completed the acquisition of Total E&P Canada Ltd. from TotalEnergies SE (ENXTPA:TTE). Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU) signed an agreement to acquire Total E&P Canada Ltd. from TotalEnergies SE (ENXTPA:TTE) for CAD 6.1 billion on April 26, 2023. Under the terms of the transaction, Suncor would acquire all of the shares of Total E&P Canada for cash consideration of CAD 5.5 billion at closing subject to adjustments, with the potential for additional payments of up to an aggregate maximum of CAD 600 million, conditional upon Western Canadian Select benchmark pricing and certain production targets. The transaction includes the acquisition of the remaining 31.23% working interest in Fort Hills and 50% working interest in Surmont, held by Total E&P Canada. The transaction will be funded through cash on hand and debt. The offering $1.5 billion will be used to fund the transaction. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals, the waiver of TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd’s partners pre-emption rights, ConocoPhillips waiving its right of first refusal in respect of the Surmont working interest and customary closing conditions. On May 26, 2023, Suncor Energy has been notified that ConocoPhillips Canada has elected to exercise their right of first refusal with respect to TotalEnergies’ 50% working interest in the Surmont asset. As a result, each of the parties has the right to terminate the agreement under which Suncor would acquire TotalEnergies’ Canadian operations and Suncor will be assessing the transaction in light of this change.
As of October 4, 2023, Suncor Energy announced that it has agreed to acquire Total E&P Canada Ltd., which holds a 31.23% working interest in the Fort Hills oil sands mining project for CAD 1.468 billion. Upon closing of the transaction, Suncor will own 100% of Fort Hills. Regulatory approvals have been received and, subject to closing, the transaction will have an effective date of April 1, 2023.
The transaction is expected to close by end of third quarter of 2023. The acquisition is expected to strengthen the underlying business, result in increasing funds flow and be accretive to funds flow per share. David Harrison of J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. acted as financial advisor and Peter Keohane, Chris Harris and Ky Kvisle of Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP and Adam Givertz and Andrew Finch of Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP acted as legal advisors to Suncor. RBC Capital Markets (Europe) GmbH, Paris Branch and TD Securities, Inc. acted as financial advisor to TotalEnergies SE.
Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU) completed the acquisition of Total E&P Canada Ltd. from TotalEnergies SE (ENXTPA:TTE) on November 20, 2023. Announcement • Nov 17
Suncor Energy Inc. Approves Quarterly Dividend, Payable December 22, 2023 Suncor Energy Inc. Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.545 per share on its common shares representing an increase of approximately 5% over the prior quarter dividend. The dividend will be payable December 22, 2023 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 1, 2023. Reported Earnings • Nov 10
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$1.19 (up from CA$0.45 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: CA$12.6b (down 15% from 3Q 2022). Net income: CA$1.54b (up CA$2.15b from 3Q 2022). Profit margin: 12% (up from net loss in 3Q 2022). The move to profitability was driven by lower expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.7%. Revenue is forecast to decline by 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the US are expected to remain flat. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 83% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 33% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Sep 30
Suncor Energy Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Nov 08, 2023 Suncor Energy Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Nov 08, 2023 Announcement • Sep 06
Suncor Energy Inc. Appoints Jane Peverett to the Board Effective September 1, 2023 Eira Thomas has retired from Suncor Energy Inc.’s board of directors and Jane Peverett has been appointed to the board effective September 1, 2023. Peverett had a successful 25-year career in the energy sector, primarily in the utility space. Before retiring from her executive career, Peverett was chief executive officer of the B.C. Transmission Corporation, where among other accomplishments, she initiated construction of the first major expansion of B.C.'s electrical grid. Prior to that, Peverett held progressively more senior finance and regulatory affairs roles at Westcoast Energy, until her appointment in 2001 as president and chief executive officer of Union Gas Limited, becoming the first woman president of a natural gas utility in Canada. Since starting her board career, Peverett has served on numerous corporate boards in the energy, banking, insurance, transportation, utility and media industries in Canada and the U.S. She is currently serving on the boards of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Northwest Natural Holding Company and Capital Power Corporation. Peverett also serves as chair of the CSI Group (formerly the Canadian Standards Association). Peverett's appointment follows the retirement of Thomas. Upcoming Dividend • Aug 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.52 per share at 4.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 August 2023. Payment date: 25 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 45% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.9%). In line with average of industry peers (4.4%). Upcoming Dividend • Aug 24
Upcoming dividend of CA$0.52 per share at 4.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 31 August 2023. Payment date: 25 September 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 45% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.7%. Lower than top quartile of American dividend payers (4.9%). In line with average of industry peers (4.4%). New Risk • Aug 20
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 24% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (12% net profit margin). Announcement • Aug 17
Suncor Continues Talks to Buy TotalEnergies Fort Hills Oil Sands Stake Canada’s Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU) is continuing talks with French oil major TotalEnergies SE (ENXTPA:TTE) about buying its nearly one-third stake in the Fort Hills oil sands mine, Suncor’s CEO said. Chief Executive Rich Kruger said he expects a resolution of the talks this year. Canada’s second-largest oil producer is looking to increase its bitumen supplies to replace its aging Base Mine. “We generally would prefer to operate and have 100% ownership of our assets; that's generally where we think we can add the most value and be the most competitive,” Kruger said on a quarterly conference call. "Fort Hills would fit into that." Total owns a 31.23% stake in Alberta's Fort Hills, with the operator Suncor owning the rest. Suncor agreed in April to buy Total’s Canadian operations for CAD 5.5 billion ($4.08 billion), including Total’s Fort Hills interest and its 50% stake in the Surmont facility. However, ConocoPhillips (COP.N), which operates Surmont, exercised its right of first refusal to buy Total’s stake instead of Suncor, triggering a review of Suncor’s deal with Total. Kruger said Suncor also has internal options to increase its long-term bitumen supply. New Risk • Aug 16
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 11% Last year net profit margin: 18% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (11% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 16
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Second quarter 2023 results: EPS: CA$1.44 (down from CA$2.84 in 2Q 2022). Revenue: CA$11.7b (down 27% from 2Q 2022). Net income: CA$1.88b (down 53% from 2Q 2022). Profit margin: 16% (down from 25% in 2Q 2022). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 15%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 57%. Revenue is expected to fall by 8.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years compared to a 2.5% decline forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the US. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 97% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 23% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Jun 21
Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 1.8%. The fair value is estimated to be US$36.56, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 27% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. Revenue is forecast to decline by 24% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to decline by 27% in the next 2 years.