Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies PHX Minerals Inc. (NYSE:PHX) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Oil and Gas industry.
What Is PHX Minerals's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 PHX Minerals had debt of US$28.3m, up from US$19.9m in one year. However, it also had US$4.49m in cash, and so its net debt is US$23.8m.
A Look At PHX Minerals' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that PHX Minerals had liabilities of US$12.4m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$33.1m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$4.49m as well as receivables valued at US$12.6m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$28.3m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given PHX Minerals has a market capitalization of US$145.0m, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
PHX Minerals has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.4. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 11.1 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Although PHX Minerals made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, it was also good to see that it generated US$10.0m in EBIT over the last twelve months. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine PHX Minerals's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, PHX Minerals saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
PHX Minerals's struggle to convert EBIT to free cash flow had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. For example its interest cover was refreshing. We think that PHX Minerals's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for PHX Minerals that you should be aware of.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:PHX
PHX Minerals
Operates as a natural gas and oil mineral company in the United States.
High growth potential with excellent balance sheet.