Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras (NYSE:PBR.A) - Share price, News & Analysis

PBR.A fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	5/6

PBR.A Stock Overview

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 47.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 164.2% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 12.1% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras Competitors

Exxon Mobil

NYSE:XOM

US$387.0b

Shell

LSE:SHEL

UK£174.6b

PetroChina

SEHK:857

HK$1.1t

ConocoPhillips

NYSE:COP

US$133.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	R$14.20
52 Week High	R$14.84
52 Week Low	R$8.89
Beta	1.37
1 Month Change	3.80%
3 Month Change	10.51%
1 Year Change	46.69%
3 Year Change	9.65%
5 Year Change	70.47%
Change since IPO	106.55%

Recent News & Updates

May 20

Petrobras: Ignore The 40%+ Yield, It's Time To Leave

The very strong oil and gas prices thus far into 2022 have seen Petrobras declare a massive dividend, which, if annualized, represents an insanely high 40%+ yield. Whilst this sounds amazing, it sadly also sees mounting geopolitical risks in their home country of Brazil. Their profitability and dividends have come under pressure from both sides of the political spectrum, and to make it even worse, this is an election year. This creates a seemingly inescapable set of geopolitical risks for investors that likely foretell lower dividends in the future. It remains to be seen what happens, but it now seems to be time to leave after enjoying a strong share price rally, and thus I believe that downgrading to a sell rating is appropriate.

May 09

Petrobras: The Brazil Discount Makes This Company A Better Investment

Petrobras has continued to have a "Brazil discount" despite an impressive portfolio of assets. The company's Campos Basin revitalization will cost $16 billion but help the company's production substantially. Going forward we expect the company to continue generating substantial FCF and shareholder returns.

Shareholder Returns

	PBR.A	US Oil and Gas	US Market
7D	4.5%	1.3%	-2.7%
1Y	46.7%	52.5%	-12.9%

Return vs Industry: PBR.A underperformed the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 51.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PBR.A exceeded the US Market which returned -12.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PBR.A's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PBR.A volatility
PBR.A Average Weekly Movement	7.0%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.5%
Market Average Movement	7.9%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.0%

Stable Share Price: PBR.A is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PBR.A's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1953	45,532	Jose Mauro Coelho	https://petrobras.com.br

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores for, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil and internationally. The company operates through Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses segments. It engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons.

Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras Fundamentals Summary

How do Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PBR.A fundamental statistics
Market Cap	R$475.47b
Earnings (TTM)	R$150.06b
Revenue (TTM)	R$499.95b

3.0x

P/E Ratio

0.9x

P/S Ratio

Is PBR.A overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PBR.A income statement (TTM)
Revenue	R$499.95b
Cost of Revenue	R$249.58b
Gross Profit	R$250.37b
Other Expenses	R$100.31b
Earnings	R$150.06b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	11.50
Gross Margin	50.08%
Net Profit Margin	30.01%
Debt/Equity Ratio	38.4%

How did PBR.A perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

24.5%

Current Dividend Yield

74%

Payout Ratio

Does PBR.A pay a reliable dividends?

See PBR.A dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy PBR.A by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	May 24 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jun 07 2022
Days until Ex dividend	3 days
Days until Dividend pay date	17 days

Does PBR.A pay a reliable dividends?

See PBR.A dividend history and benchmarks

Valuation

Is Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

47.3%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PBR.A ($14.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($26.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PBR.A is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PBR.A is good value based on its PE Ratio (3x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (13.4x).

PE vs Market: PBR.A is good value based on its PE Ratio (3x) compared to the US market (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PBR.A's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PBR.A is good value based on its PB Ratio (1x) compared to the US Oil and Gas industry average (2x).

Future Growth

How is Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-12.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PBR.A's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-12.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PBR.A's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-12.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PBR.A's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PBR.A's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PBR.A's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.6% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PBR.A's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.6%)

Past Performance

How has Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

53.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PBR.A has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PBR.A's current net profit margins (30%) are higher than last year (22.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PBR.A has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 53.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: PBR.A's earnings growth over the past year (164.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (53.6% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PBR.A earnings growth over the past year (164.2%) exceeded the Oil and Gas industry 88.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: PBR.A's Return on Equity (34.5%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PBR.A's short term assets (R$199.5B) exceed its short term liabilities (R$130.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: PBR.A's short term assets (R$199.5B) do not cover its long term liabilities (R$431.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PBR.A's net debt to equity ratio (18.4%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: PBR.A's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 139.8% to 38.4% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PBR.A's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (128.6%).

Interest Coverage: PBR.A's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (16.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

24.50%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PBR.A's dividend (24.5%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: PBR.A's dividend (24.5%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.09%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PBR.A's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PBR.A's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (74.2%), PBR.A's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (62.4%), PBR.A's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jose Mauro Coelho

0.083

Tenure

Mr. Jose Mauro Ferreira Coelho serves as Member of the Executive Board at Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras since April 2022. He is Chief Executive Officer of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras from A...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PBR.A's management team is not considered experienced ( 1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: PBR.A's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/21 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/20 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31