Earnings Update: Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) Just Reported Its Third-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to US$22.46 in the week after its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of US$325m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$0.40, missing estimates by 2.4%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Magnolia Oil & Gas from 13 analysts is for revenues of US$1.35b in 2026. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$1.87, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.36b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.87 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Magnolia Oil & Gas

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$26.88, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Magnolia Oil & Gas at US$33.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Magnolia Oil & Gas' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Magnolia Oil & Gas.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Magnolia Oil & Gas going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Magnolia Oil & Gas' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.