Holly Energy Partners, L.P.

NYSE:HEP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.6b

This company has been acquired

The company may no longer be operating, as it has been acquired. Find out why through their latest events.

Holly Energy Partners Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Holly Energy Partners is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 10.1% and 4.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 25.7% in 3 years.

Key information

10.1%

Earnings growth rate

9.40%

EPS growth rate

Oil and Gas earnings growth11.0%
Revenue growth rate4.9%
Future return on equity25.67%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated17 Oct 2023

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Oct 04

Holly Energy Partners: Operational Excellence As Investment Thesis Strengthens

Summary Holly Energy Partners has seen its share appreciate by over 40% in the last 12 months, with a forward yield of over 6%. HEP operates a network of pipelines and storage tanks strategically located near refineries, providing stable and predictable revenue. The company is well-positioned in regions with promising growth prospects, such as the Mid-Continent, Southwest, and Northwest areas of the United States. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Sep 22

Holly Energy Partners: Excellent Prospects Driven By High Economic Leverage On Capital Deployed

Summary Holly Energy Partners enjoys consumer advantages and cost differentiation benefits given its industry positioning. HEP's latest financial results continued its high post-tax margins and confirmed its ability to compound capital. Investors should be aware of the risks associated with HEP, including its exposure to macroeconomic and commodity cycles, the inflation/rates axis, and relative valuation compared to peers. Net-net, rate buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jun 21

Holly Energy Partners: High Yield But Sustainable

Summary Holly Energy Partners L.P. offers a high-yielding dividend aristocrat, with a solid position in the oil and gas industry. HEP's financials are strong, with manageable debt and a debt/adjusted EBITDA of 3.75, supported by contracts with HF Sinclair. The company's valuation remains in line with the sector, making it an appealing buy for investors seeking exposure to the energy sector and a solid dividend yield. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 23

Holly Energy Partners Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Friday, February 24, before market open. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.51. Over the last 2 years, HEP has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 0 downward. SA contributor DT Analysis expects Holly Energy's (HEP) distribution coverage to climb even higher in 2023 vs. 2022.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 20

Holly Energy Partners declares $0.35 dividend

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 7.18% Payable Feb. 13; for shareholders of record Jan. 30; ex-div Jan. 27. See HEP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 05

Holly Energy Partners: The Scene Is Set For Higher Distributions

Summary Earlier in 2022, Holly Energy Partners placed higher distributions on the horizon. They have not subsequently backed down, at least not publicly, and most importantly, they continue seeing benefits from their Sinclair acquisition. When looking ahead, I estimate their free cash flow, and thus, distribution coverage will climb even higher in 2023 versus 2022. This increases the scope for higher distributions with their investments winding down, thereby maximizing free cash flow. It appears the scene is set for higher distributions, and thus I believe that maintaining my strong buy rating is appropriate.
Seeking Alpha • Nov 04

Holly Energy Partners Q3 2022 Earnings Preview

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Monday, November 7th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.52 (+13.0% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $139.69M (+14.0% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, HEP has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 0 downward.
Seeking Alpha • Oct 20

Holly Energy Partners declares $0.35 dividend

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 7.64% Payable Nov. 11; for shareholders of record Oct. 31; ex-div Oct. 28. See HEP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 05

Holly Energy Partners Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Monday, August 8th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.52 (+8.3% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $124.17M (-1.6% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, HEP has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 1 upward revision and 0 downward.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

Holly Energy Partners declares $0.35 dividend

Holly Energy Partners (NYSE:HEP) declared $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous. Forward yield 8.3% Payable Aug. 12; for shareholders of record Aug. 1; ex-div July 29. See HEP Dividend Scorecard, Yield Chart, & Dividend Growth.
Seeking Alpha • May 11

Holly Energy Partners: Higher Yield Coming After Sinclair Acquisition, 10%+ Possible

Holly Energy Partners recently completed their acquisition of new assets from Sinclair as their parent company merged with the latter. Whilst this pushed their outstanding unit count higher, it should also boost their free cash flow and thus see their strong distribution coverage remain. It also saw their net debt increase slightly over 20%, but given the circa 20% forecast earnings increase, this should cancel out. When these two variables are combined, it sees scope for distribution growth in the coming years once they finish integrating their new assets. Since their high 8%+ distribution yield stands to potentially grow into a very high 10%+ yield on current cost, I believe that maintaining my buy rating is appropriate.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 24

The 8.2% Distribution Yield Of Holly Energy Partners Is Ideal Amid High Inflation

HEP is offering an 8.2% distribution yield. The distribution of HEP has a wide margin of safety thanks to the defensive business model of the MLP, its strong coverage ratio and its solid balance sheet. HEP is an ideal holding for the investors who are trying to protect the value of their portfolio from the surge of inflation to a multi-decade high.
Seeking Alpha • Dec 07

Holly Energy Partners: The Great Deal, Buy Their 8%+ Yield And Get Any Growth For Free

The current unit price of Holly Energy Partners presents a great deal for investors who can buy their high 8%+ distribution yield whilst getting any growth for free. Their cash flow performance has not only remained resilient throughout 2020 and 2021 but has actually grown moderately, although they are currently focused on deleveraging instead of higher distributions. When looking ahead, their Sinclair acquisition will see their leverage edge higher but does not pose any significant risks. There is uncertainty over when and by how much they will grow their distributions after this acquisition but at least they will remain sustainable. Since their intrinsic value is at least approximately 20% higher even without any distribution growth, I believe that maintaining my bullish rating is appropriate.
Seeking Alpha • Sep 20

All MLP Investors Should Have This Name In Their Portfolio: Holly Energy Partners

HEP units are currently undervalued with a safe 7.7% yield. Distributions are likely to increase over the coming years and are protected from inflation. The company generates some of the highest returns on capital in midstream. The units should be bought for long-term holding below $19.00.
Seeking Alpha • Jul 21

The 6.5% Distribution Yield Of Holly Energy Partners Is Safe

HEP is offering an attractive 6.5% distribution yield. HEP has proved resilient to the pandemic. While most energy companies saw their cash flows collapse last year, HEP grew its distributable cash flow 4% last year. HEP has a strong distribution coverage ratio of 2.0.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:HEP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2025648289N/AN/A2
12/31/20246422803343793
12/31/20236022392893393
9/30/2023584239321351N/A
6/30/2023575218314346N/A
3/31/2023571224297329N/A
12/31/2022547216292331N/A
9/30/2022523194249292N/A
6/30/2022497201231284N/A
3/31/2022488199213284N/A
12/31/2021494214204294N/A
9/30/2021503220232331N/A
6/30/2021509188255343N/A
3/31/2021497209246320N/A
12/31/2020498170256316N/A
9/30/2020502165249294N/A
6/30/2020510229244287N/A
3/31/2020526199266304N/A
12/31/2019533225267297N/A
9/30/2019534227269306N/A
6/30/2019524189239279N/A
3/31/2019512184240286N/A
12/31/2018506179248295N/A
9/30/2018503217230278N/A
6/30/2018487215237286N/A
3/31/2018478198226275N/A
12/31/2017454160194238N/A
9/30/201743899205243N/A
6/30/201742075N/A246N/A
3/31/201740679N/A240N/A
12/31/2016402101N/A244N/A
9/30/2016387105N/A243N/A
6/30/2016383109N/A232N/A
3/31/2016371103N/A217N/A
12/31/201535994N/A231N/A
9/30/201535085N/A216N/A
6/30/201534482N/A205N/A
3/31/201533577N/A208N/A
12/31/201433370N/A185N/A
9/30/201432263N/A192N/A
6/30/201431857N/A193N/A
3/31/201431856N/A191N/A
12/31/201330552N/A183N/A
9/30/201330962N/A181N/A
6/30/201330565N/A173N/A
3/31/201329868N/A168N/A
12/31/201229372N/A161N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: HEP's forecast earnings growth (10.1% per year) is above the savings rate (2.2%).

Earnings vs Market: HEP's earnings (10.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (14.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: HEP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: HEP's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: HEP's revenue (4.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: HEP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (25.7%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2023/12/02 18:48
End of Day Share Price 2023/11/30 00:00
Earnings2023/09/30
Annual Earnings2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Holly Energy Partners, L.P. is covered by 11 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yim ChengBarclays
Douglas IrwinCitigroup Inc
Steven SherowskiGoldman Sachs