A Closer Look at Expand Energy (EXE) Valuation After Earnings Turnaround and Raised 2025 Outlook

Expand Energy (EXE) announced third quarter earnings that reversed last year’s losses, with revenue and profitability sharply higher. The company also boosted its 2025 production guidance, signaling a more confident operational outlook for investors.

See our latest analysis for Expand Energy.

Riding momentum from its latest earnings beat and a bump in 2025 production targets, Expand Energy has attracted fresh investor attention. The 1-year total shareholder return now stands at 31.13%, which is well ahead of its longer-term average and suggests renewed optimism for the stock’s outlook.

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With share price gains outpacing recent years and stronger results fueling enthusiasm, the key question is whether Expand Energy remains undervalued or if markets have already priced in next year’s growth. Could there be more upside ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.5% Undervalued

Expand Energy’s most widely tracked narrative places its fair value at $128.78, well above the last close price of $110.05. This gap between consensus fair value and market price sets the tone for a debate over just how much growth and improvement the market is willing to price in.

Major, recurring operational efficiencies and rapid well productivity gains, driven by advanced digitalization and AI integration, are resulting in reduced drilling and completion costs and increasing net margins. These improvements are expected to compound over time and directly benefit future earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to unpack the engine behind this bullish price target? The narrative hints at a surge in profits and razor-sharp margin expansion, all built on aggressive technology shifts. What are the specific growth bets and margin leaps behind this calculation? The answers might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $128.78 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, policy shifts favoring renewables or asset concentration in mature basins could pressure margins and dampen Expand Energy’s ambitious outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Expand Energy narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Tell a Different Story

Looking at valuation through the lens of price-to-earnings, Expand Energy trades at 30.2 times earnings, more than double both the US Oil and Gas industry average of 12.8x and peer average of 13.5x. Even compared to its fair ratio of 22.9x, the company appears expensive, raising concerns about the risk of future multiple contraction.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Expand Energy Narrative

If you’d rather forge your own view or reach a different conclusion, you can dive into the data and shape your personal investment story in just minutes, then Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Expand Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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