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CLMT

Calumet Specialty Products Partners NasdaqGS:CLMT Stock Report

Last Price

US$13.30

Market Cap

US$1.1b

7D

1.9%

1Y

51.3%

Updated

03 Oct, 2022

Data

Company Financials +
CLMT fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth3/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health0/6
Dividends0/6

CLMT Stock Overview

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Calumet Specialty Products Partners
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$13.30
52 Week HighUS$18.47
52 Week LowUS$8.12
Beta2.06
1 Month Change-23.91%
3 Month Change47.94%
1 Year Change51.31%
3 Year Change280.00%
5 Year Change55.10%
Change since IPO-38.85%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 19

Calumet Specialty Products Blasted Off, The Cash Flow Went Solar

Calumet reported a through-the-roof record of $175 million in EBITDA far above the most bullish estimates. Significantly higher cash flow will likely continue. Between cash on hand and cash generated in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, the company will have enough cash to purchase the 2024 bond debt. Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) launched on August 5th. Oh my, what a sight. With management's announced results, stunned investors observed the spectacle with a record EBITDA of $175 million. Clearly, unprecedented crack spreads drove a significant piece of the results leaving investors with a question, a serious question, was the launch a one off or is more coming? While we slowly walked from the glorious event, pondering answers to those two questions seemed essential. It certainly was to the analysts who attended the call. So let's ponder together future possibilities, because in our view the launch continues. Stunning Results As stated above, the company reported an EBITDA of $175 million for the quarter. The closest to this EBITDA number was $110 million (excluding LCM/LIFO) in the 4th quarter of 2018. A slide from the latest quarterly presentation follows. Calumet The individual businesses reported: SPS $123 million, MRL $69 million and PB $4. Corporate expenses were $20 million. As shown in the lower right hand portion of the slide, Gulf Coast crack spreads expanded to extra ordinary levels peaking near $70-$80 in May. Although Performance Brands still lags in performance, the rest of the company is operating on steroids. In our last article, we included an estimate of individual parts that, when added together, equaled $145 million that was still $30 million low. (Note: we presented a lowered final estimate of $100-$115 million without the courage to believe fully the addition.) $10 million in that estimate was for asphalt. With the information provided that estimate is likely extremely low per the next slide. Calumet Presentation The 10-Q for the June quarter show that asphalt sales from Montana equaled $100 million. Using the Montana Gross Profit results for the 2nd quarter, asphalt sales netted closer to $30 million. Our $145 million estimate would equal $165 million or within +-10%. A Review of the Quarter's Key Spreads Most important to investors is this a one-off unprecedented quarter or is it a new trend? To answer this, we begin by reviewing a couple of key factors from the June quarter. Our past model evaluates results based on crack spreads and production. Calumet provided on its slide a graph of the Gulf Coast crack spreads. We summarized approximate slide results in the next table. Slide Cracks Diesel Gasoline 2-1-1 April $55 $30 $42 May $60 $45 $52 June $60 $55 $57 We also calculate our own spreads based on EIA data. EIA Cracks-2nd Quarter 2-1-1 April $40 May $50 June $60 The two approaches match within reasonable precision. Using our model shown in a past article, "we noted that every $10 increase in GC 2-1-1 spreads adds approximately $30 million of EBITDA per quarter. Also, changes in crack spreads exclude the seasonal markets for asphalt." 3rd Quarter Estimate The next table includes crack spreads for July and August to date. EIA Cracks-3rd Quarter 2-1-1 July $45 August-to-date $35 September * $40 * Crack spread estimate for September assumes a strengthening in crude oil pricing with the continued drop in crude oil inventory. Based on crack spread adjustments quarter over quarter of $10-$15, a reduction of $30-$40 million is likely. This number includes crack spread reductions at Great Falls. In addition, Great Falls didn't operate during August or for 1/3 of the time that results in another reduction of approximately 30% in EBITDA or $20 million ($68 million * 0.30). Great Falls Renewable will operate for one month (September) at 5000 barrels per day of waste feeds for its renewable diesel business. At $1.75 per gallon margin, the EBITDA could be $10 million (Numbers from the June 17th Cowen slides). (This corrects an error from our previous article which stated two months generating $20 million for the quarter.) The 3rd quarter estimate might equal $175 - $40 - $20 or $115 million. Although we aren't yet ready to estimate the 4th quarter, two major impacts will affect it, loss of most of the asphalt revenue and the gain from a full quarter of MRL and Renewables operation. 4th quarter results could come in between the 2nd and 3rd quarter figures. Financial Impact The June quarter results plus our estimate for September makes or will make a huge positive impact against the balance sheet. From the June quarterly presentation, the company paid $42 million in interest expense. The total capital expenses for PB and Specialty equaled $20 million. The total cash expenses for June equal approximately $60 leaving $115 million for extra cash. The 3rd quarter balance equals $115 million - $60 million or $55 million. Extra cash from the two quarters might equal $170 million. The next slide shows the capital structure with $200 million coming due in 2024.

Aug 04

Calumet Specialty Q2 2022 Earnings Preview

Calumet Specialty (NASDAQ:CLMT) is scheduled to announce Q2 earnings results on Thursday, August 4th, before market open. The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.17 (+117.5% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1.1B (+36.3% Y/Y). Over the last 2 years, CLMT has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 88% of the time. Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 0 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 4 upward revisions and 0 downward.

Shareholder Returns

CLMTUS Oil and GasUS Market
7D1.9%10.3%1.0%
1Y51.3%36.4%-20.0%

Return vs Industry: CLMT exceeded the US Oil and Gas industry which returned 32% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CLMT exceeded the US Market which returned -23.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CLMT's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CLMT volatility
CLMT Average Weekly Movement10.2%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement8.0%
Market Average Movement6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market15.5%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market2.8%

Stable Share Price: CLMT is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CLMT's weekly volatility (10%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
19161,450Louis Borgmannhttps://www.calumetspecialty.com

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. manufactures, formulates, and markets slate of specialty branded products to various consumer-facing and industrial markets in North America and internationally. Its Specialty Products and Solutions segment offers various solvents, waxes, customized lubricating oils, white oils, petrolatums, gels, esters, and other products. The company’s Montana/Renewables segment focuses on processing renewable feedstocks into renewable hydrogen, renewable natural gas, renewable propane, renewable naphtha, renewable kerosene/aviation fuel, and renewable diesel.

Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P. Fundamentals Summary

How do Calumet Specialty Products Partners's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CLMT fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$1.07b
Earnings (TTM)-US$143.50m
Revenue (TTM)US$4.26b

0.2x

P/S Ratio

-7.3x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CLMT income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$4.26b
Cost of RevenueUS$3.93b
Gross ProfitUS$330.90m
Other ExpensesUS$474.40m
Earnings-US$143.50m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-1.81
Gross Margin7.76%
Net Profit Margin-3.37%
Debt/Equity Ratio-344.3%

How did CLMT perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison