Radian Group Inc.'s (NYSE:RDN) Prospects Need A Boost To Lift Shares

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may consider Radian Group Inc. (NYSE:RDN) as a highly attractive investment with its 8.1x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.

While the market has experienced earnings growth lately, Radian Group's earnings have gone into reverse gear, which is not great. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for Radian Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Radian Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as Radian Group's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.6%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 38% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 2.3% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we can see why Radian Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

As we suspected, our examination of Radian Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Radian Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.