PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of PMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

PMT ($14.34) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] ($10.24)

PMT fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	3/6

PMT Stock Overview

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, a specialty finance company, primarily invests in mortgage-related assets in the United States.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 101.18% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 13.11% is not well covered by earnings

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Competitors

MFA Financial

NYSE:MFA

US$1.1b

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

NYSE:ARI

US$1.5b

Two Harbors Investment

NYSE:TWO

US$1.7b

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust

NYSE:KREF

US$1.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$14.34
52 Week High	US$21.11
52 Week Low	US$11.64
Beta	1.08
1 Month Change	-11.92%
3 Month Change	-15.40%
1 Year Change	-31.71%
3 Year Change	-35.29%
5 Year Change	-21.43%
Change since IPO	-24.92%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 28

PennyMac Mortgage: Bearish Earnings Trend And Price Action, But Improving Profit Outlook

U.S. small-cap stocks have been a huge laggard in the last year and decade. One small-cap REIT stock boasts a massive dividend yield, but its earnings history and technical price trends warrant caution. Investors should grab that yield only if shares rise above and hold $15.

Shareholder Returns

	PMT	US Mortgage REITs	US Market
7D	2.0%	-2.3%	-2.5%
1Y	-31.7%	-27.3%	-21.2%

Return vs Industry: PMT underperformed the US Mortgage REITs industry which returned -29.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PMT underperformed the US Market which returned -21.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is PMT's price volatile compared to industry and market?
PMT volatility
PMT Average Weekly Movement	6.2%
Mortgage REITs Industry Average Movement	5.7%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.9%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: PMT is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: PMT's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2009	1	David Spector	https://www.pennymacmortgageinvestmenttrust.com

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust, a specialty finance company, primarily invests in mortgage-related assets in the United States. The company’s Credit Sensitive Strategies segment invests in credit risk transfer (CRT) agreements, CRT securities, distressed loans, real estate, and non-agency subordinated bonds. Its Interest Rate Sensitive Strategies segment engages in investing in mortgage servicing rights, excess servicing spreads, and agency and senior non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), as well as related interest rate hedging activities.

PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Fundamentals Summary

How do PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
PMT fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$1.32b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$69.29m
Revenue (TTM)	US$612.49m

2.2x

P/S Ratio

-19.0x

P/E Ratio

Is PMT overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
PMT income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$612.49m
Cost of Revenue	US$259.97m
Gross Profit	US$352.52m
Other Expenses	US$421.81m
Earnings	-US$69.29m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-0.75
Gross Margin	57.56%
Net Profit Margin	-11.31%
Debt/Equity Ratio	447.0%

How did PMT perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

13.1%

Current Dividend Yield

-262%

Payout Ratio

Does PMT pay a reliable dividends?

See PMT dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy PMT by to receive an upcoming dividend?
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Jul 13 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Jul 28 2022
Days until Ex dividend	11 days
Days until Dividend pay date	26 days

Does PMT pay a reliable dividends?

See PMT dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is PMT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PMT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for PMT. This is calculated by dividing PMT's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is PMT's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$1.32b

PMT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does PMT's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

PMT PB Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PB ratio for PMT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.7x
MFA MFA Financial	0.5x	76.2%	US$1.1b
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance	0.7x	14.7%	US$1.5b
TWO Two Harbors Investment	0.9x	8.2%	US$1.7b
KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust	0.8x	7.0%	US$1.3b
PMT PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust	0.8x	101.2%	US$1.3b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: PMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PMT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Mortgage REITs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: PMT is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.8x) compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average (0.8x)

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PMT's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PMT PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	0.8x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PMT's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PMT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PMT ($14.34) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($10.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PMT is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PMT's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

101.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PMT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1.9%).

Earnings vs Market: PMT is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: PMT is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PMT's revenue (1.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PMT's revenue (1.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if PMT's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

0.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PMT is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: PMT is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PMT is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 0.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare PMT's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: PMT is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Mortgage REITs industry (5.4%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: PMT has a negative Return on Equity (-1.52%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PMT's short term assets ($5.5B) exceed its short term liabilities ($5.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: PMT's short term assets ($5.5B) exceed its long term liabilities ($4.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PMT's net debt to equity ratio (435.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: PMT's debt to equity ratio has increased from 303% to 447% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PMT's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (8%).

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if PMT's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

2/6

Dividend Score 2/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

13.11%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PMT's dividend (13.11%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.61%).

High Dividend: PMT's dividend (13.11%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.3%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PMT's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PMT's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: PMT is paying a dividend but the company is unprofitable.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (21.7%), PMT's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

David Spector (59 yo)

5.42yrs

Tenure

US$999,981

Compensation

Mr. David A. Spector has been the Chief Executive Officer of PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. since January 1, 2017. He served as President at PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. since February 2013 to Febr...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: PMT's management team is considered experienced (4 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: PMT's board of directors are considered experienced (9.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31