Moody's Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 4/6
Moody's has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 4.1%, while the Capital Markets industry saw earnings growing at 6.1% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 6.6% per year. Moody's's return on equity is 79.5%, and it has net margins of 31.7%.
Key information
4.10%
Earnings growth rate
5.14%
EPS growth rate
| Capital Markets Industry Growth | 10.26% |
| Revenue growth rate | 6.61% |
| Return on equity | 79.48% |
| Net Margin | 31.69% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
New Narrative • May 22
Moody's future looks bright with a 31.18x PE growth in the next 5 years
Moody’s is not just a credit rating agency — it is one of the foundational infrastructure providers of the global financial system. Every year, governments, corporations, banks, and structured finance issuers collectively raise trillions of dollars in debt, and most of that debt requires a Moody’s rating to access institutional capital markets.Seeking Alpha • May 12
Moody's Corporation: Too Much Negativity Baked Into Its Stock Price
Summary Moody's Corporation's ordinary shares have underperformed YTD, but I view AI disruption fears as overstated and see recent weakness as a buying opportunity. The analytics segment's core value lies in proprietary data, expert insights, and regulatory compliance, which AI tools cannot easily replicate or replace. The Investor Services segment has shown robust growth. Tight credit spreads and relatively low real borrowing rates might sustain issuances for an extended period. Moody's stock's multiples are high on an absolute basis, yet tame on a 5-year relative basis. I expect narrative-driven selloff to reverse, with MCO's fundamentals and asset-light, cash-rich model supporting long-term outperformance despite cyclical and AI-related risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 01
MCO: AI Data Moats And Q4 Execution Will Support Durable Upside
Analysts have trimmed Moody's fair value estimate by $2.85 to $535.00. This reflects slightly lower modeled revenue growth, a modestly higher discount rate, and a reduced future P/E multiple, partly offset by a small uplift to long-term profit margin assumptions, in line with recent mixed shifts in Street price targets.New Narrative • Apr 20
MCO 04-2026
Moody's Corporation is a regulatory-moated oligopoly wrapped in a compounding software business. The MIS ratings franchise holds the most durable structural position in financial services: NRSRO designation is a legal prerequisite for capital adequacy calculations in virtually every major financial market globally, the duopoly with S&P has been unbroken for over four decades, and the proprietary century-old default database cannot be replicated at any cost.Narrative Update • Apr 15
MCO: AI Productivity And Data Moats Will Sustain Ratings Strength Into 2026
Moody's updated Analyst Price Target moves lower by about $38 to $537.85, as analysts temper assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E multiples, while still highlighting solid recent results and competitive strengths in ratings and data. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a mixed but generally constructive tone around Moody's, with most firms trimming price targets while still recognizing strengths in its ratings and data businesses.Narrative Update • Feb 09
MCO: Issuance And Private Credit Demand Will Drive Rating Strength Into 2026
Narrative Update The analyst price target for Moody's has been adjusted to reflect a mix of lower and higher Street targets, including cuts such as the recent reduction at Goldman Sachs and increases from firms citing stronger issuance trends, a favorable environment for Moody's Investors Service, and a more constructive outlook for rating agencies into 2026. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Moody's reflects a mix of optimism around issuance trends and earnings potential, alongside some restraint on valuation and expectations.Narrative Update • Jan 25
MCO: Fair Outlook Sees Issuance Strength Balancing Private Credit Ratings Uncertainty
The analyst price target for Moody's has been raised from US$561.68 to US$575.53, as analysts point to solid recent issuance trends, a more favorable earnings outlook for the Moody's Investors Service segment, and sustained interest in the stock from multiple research houses. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Moody's reflects a generally positive tone, with several firms lifting price targets and one upgrade in rating, all tied closely to issuance trends and expectations for the Moody's Investors Service segment.Narrative Update • Jan 10
MCO: Fair Outlook Balances Issuance Strength With Data And Analytics Uncertainty
The analyst price target for Moody's has been raised from about US$545.50 to roughly US$561.68, with analysts pointing to stronger assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly lower discount rate. This is supported by recent research that highlights a constructive outlook for rating agencies, improving issuance trends and Moody's expanding role in data and analytics.Narrative Update • Sep 21
Private Credit Evolution And AI Integration Will Shape Market Success
Moody's saw only marginal improvements in both revenue growth and net profit margin forecasts, resulting in the consensus analyst price target rising slightly from $543.40 to $545.50. What's in the News Moody's launched Agentic Solutions, an AI-powered product suite automating and optimizing complex decision-making workflows for regulated industries, enhancing productivity, transparency, and workflow efficiency across finance, risk, and strategy.Analysis Article • Jul 26
The Moody's Corporation (NYSE:MCO) Second-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
As you might know, Moody's Corporation ( NYSE:MCO ) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong...Analysis Article • Jun 02
Moody's Corporation's (NYSE:MCO) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may...Seeking Alpha • Apr 24
Moody's: Q1, Analytics Strength Offsets Weaker Debt Issuance Outlook (Rating Upgrade)
Summary Moody's Corporation reported strong Q1 2025 earnings, with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations, driven by robust performance in ratings. Despite trimming FY 2025 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainties, Moody's valuation has become more attractive at a price-to-cash flow of 31.2x. Risks include potential declines in credit issuances and slower up-sells from new AI products, but Moody's strong market position and recurrent revenue provide resilience. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 28
Moody's: A Long Term Compounder At A Hefty Price
Summary Moody's, a pioneer in bond credit ratings, has grown into a financial services giant with two main segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA). MIS, generating $3.8 billion in 2024, provides essential credit ratings that influence companies' borrowing costs, while MA offers SaaS-based decision solutions, contributing $3.3 billion. Moody's boasts strong financials with $7.1 billion in 2024 revenue, 20% growth, and high margins, driven by its competitive edge in the credit rating market. Despite a higher valuation than historical averages, Moody's shares offer potential returns of 4.7%-9.8% annually over the next five years, depending on EBITDA growth and multiples. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 08
Moody's Q4: Expect A Beat And Raise
Summary Moody's Corporation (MCO) has a robust business model, and over 100 years of industry presence, making it a reliable investment even in volatile markets. MCO has a 5-year total return of 96.1%, stellar Q3 '24 results with revenue up 23% and earnings up 39%, and raised its Q4 guidance. Risks are primarily macroeconomic, such as potential market volatility due to changes in government policies, but long-term prospects remain strong. I rate MCO a Buy for long-term, capital appreciation-focused investors due to its consistent dividend growth and strong financial performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 29
Moody's And The Stargate Project: A Potential Catalyst No One Is Talking About
Summary Moody's Corporation is widely known for its unbeatable moat that has made it one of Warren Buffett's long-term picks. The most recent data on global debt suggest that Moody's will report a strong Q4 and that 2025 will be a favorable year. The Stargate Project and the AI wars could constitute yet another (hidden) catalyst for Moody's. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 06
Moody's: Overvalued But Still A Hold
Summary Moody's has had a strong year-to-date return of 30%, but its current valuation at a 37.2 P/E ratio suggests it is overvalued. Moody's operates through two main segments: Moody's Investor Services and Moody's Analytics, both critical to the financial sector. Despite Moody's impressive growth, S&P Global offers better value with a lower P/E ratio and faster cash flow growth, making it a more attractive investment. I will hold my Moody's shares long-term due to its high-quality business, despite expecting lower short-term returns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 23
Moody's Q3 Earnings: Emerging Benefactors And Solid Baseline Results
Summary Moody's Corporation's Q3 earnings report showed impressive line items and guidance. Segmental growth remains robust, and profit margins are comprehensive. Normalization in M&A, expansion in private debt, and entry into catastrophe insurance analytics offerings add optimism. Inflated valuation multiples are likely justified by compelling growth figures. Risks include market pessimism post-earnings, potential mean reversion of high multiples, and uncertainty in M&A deal flow recovery. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Sep 25
Moody's: Fundamentals Are Better Than Expected, But Valuation Is Still High
Summary I maintain a hold rating for Moody’s stock due to concerns about its premium valuation relative to S&P Global Inc. Recent positive developments in MCO’s MIS segment and potential growth in the MA segment have improved my outlook but don't justify the premium. MCO’s GenAI products show promising growth potential, with significant increases in usage and cross-selling capabilities, enhancing long-term earnings prospects. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 28
Moody's: Capitalize On The Upcoming Global Easing Cycle
Summary Moody's is a high-quality compounder with a deep economic moat and strong cash flow, delivering a 19% annualized return over the past decade. The Fed's rate cut cycle is expected to boost global bond issuances, benefiting MCO's MIS segment, which saw strong earnings from narrowing credit spreads and lower treasury yields. Despite conservative guidance due to election-related uncertainty, MCO's historical performance and the initiation of a global monetary easing cycle suggest a promising outlook for 2025. Key risks include potential delays in the Fed's rate cuts and underperformance in the MA segment, but MCO's robust business model mitigates permanent capital loss risks. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 15
Moody's Corporation: Great Business But Currently Very Expensive
Summary Moody's is a global credit ratings agency assisting organizations in managing risk in fixed income investments. It operates in two segments: Moody's Analytics and Moody's Investors Service. Moody's has been growing through strategic acquisitions internationally, more than doubling revenues and incomes every decade, and has an asset-light business model. Moody's is currently very richly valued by the market; some of the highest valuations since 2000 by P/E and operating cash flow yield metrics. Now is not a good time to start a long position; rather it may be a good time to sell Moody's shares to take some profits. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 20
Moody's: Q2 Earnings, What To Expect And What I Am Doing As Investor
Summary Duopolies like S&P Global and Moody's are strong investments. When Moody's reported Q1 earnings, we saw potential for growth in Q2. In this article, we discuss the new favorable developments for the company, while taking a look at its valuation. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Moody's makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 7,873 | 2,495 | 1,835 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 7,718 | 2,459 | 1,797 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 7,501 | 2,244 | 1,773 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 7,307 | 2,132 | 1,753 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 7,226 | 2,106 | 1,757 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 7,088 | 2,058 | 1,731 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 6,896 | 2,003 | 1,713 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 6,555 | 1,858 | 1,683 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 6,232 | 1,683 | 1,651 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 5,916 | 1,607 | 1,623 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 5,726 | 1,513 | 1,599 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 5,529 | 1,427 | 1,581 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 5,416 | 1,377 | 1,534 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 5,468 | 1,374 | 1,520 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 5,717 | 1,555 | 1,613 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 5,968 | 1,726 | 1,595 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 6,140 | 1,976 | 1,563 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 6,218 | 2,214 | 1,487 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 5,969 | 2,101 | 1,344 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 5,799 | 2,094 | 1,251 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 5,681 | 2,026 | 1,225 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 5,371 | 1,778 | 1,235 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 5,314 | 1,824 | 1,202 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 5,198 | 1,736 | 1,224 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 4,977 | 1,537 | 1,192 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 4,829 | 1,422 | 1,171 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 4,656 | 1,313 | 1,132 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 4,497 | 1,244 | 1,101 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 4,458 | 1,310 | 1,098 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 4,443 | 1,310 | 1,089 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 4,548 | 1,085 | 1,115 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 4,530 | 1,092 | 1,097 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 4,356 | 1,028 | 1,045 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 4,204 | 1,001 | 998 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 3,981 | 547 | 945 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 3,835 | 485 | 921 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 3,763 | 428 | 929 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 3,604 | 267 | 943 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 3,528 | 913 | 935 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 3,446 | 889 | 934 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 3,435 | 896 | 932 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 3,485 | 941 | 921 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 3,496 | 960 | 918 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 3,477 | 943 | 904 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: MCO has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: MCO's current net profit margins (31.7%) are higher than last year (29.1%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: MCO's earnings have grown by 4.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: MCO's earnings growth over the past year (18.5%) exceeds its 5-year average (4.1% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: MCO earnings growth over the past year (18.5%) did not outperform the Capital Markets industry 36.1%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: Whilst MCO's Return on Equity (79.48%) is outstanding, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/22 07:44 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Moody's Corporation is covered by 33 analysts. 20 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| John Eade | Argus Research Company |
| Jeffrey Meuler | Baird |
| Manav Patnaik | Barclays |