Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

NYSE:ARI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.2b

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 118.6% and 3.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 118.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.3% in 3 years.

Key information

118.6%

Earnings growth rate

118.8%

EPS growth rate

Mortgage REITs earnings growth36.3%
Revenue growth rate3.5%
Future return on equity9.3%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated23 Jan 2025

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

I Am Loading Up On This Fat 11% Yield: Apollo Commercial

Dec 07

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance: A Buy After 29% Dividend Cut?

Nov 13

Apollo Commercial: More Value Destruction As Leverage Remains Sky-High

Nov 06

Apollo Commercial: Deep Value Or A Falling Knife?

Oct 16

Apollo Commercial: Distribution Cut, New Yield 10.3%

Sep 17

Hold Fast To This 13% Income Generator: Apollo Commercial

Aug 27

Apollo Commercial: Risky 14% Yield

Aug 19

Apollo Commercial: Comparing 13% Yielder Versus Peers

Jul 18

Apollo Commercial: Margin Of Safety Has Disappeared (Rating Downgrade)

May 06

Apollo Commercial: This 13% May Look Riskier Than It Is

Feb 23

Apollo Commercial: Solid Dividend Coverage Turns This CRE Trust Into A Buy (Upgrade)

Dec 16

Apollo Commercial: This 13.4% Yield Looks Better Now (Upgrade)

Oct 03

Apollo Commercial: Has Been Over-Punished

Sep 21

With EPS Growth And More, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Makes An Interesting Case

Jul 12
With EPS Growth And More, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Makes An Interesting Case

Earn 12% By Owning The Lender Not The Lendee: Apollo Commercial RE

Jul 10

Here's Why Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

Apr 06
Here's Why Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Has Caught The Eye Of Investors

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q4 2022 Earnings Preview

Feb 07

Apollo Commercial: Near Fair Value With A High Yield, Key Technical Level In Play

Feb 01

Apollo Commercial Real Estate originates $3.7B of mortgages in 2022

Jan 12

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance declares $0.35 dividend

Dec 13

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Q3 2022 Earnings Preview

Oct 23

Apollo Commercial: A Value Trap

Oct 07

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance declares $0.35 dividend

Sep 13

Apollo Commercial: I'm Happy About Increasing Interest Rates

Sep 06

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance closes 2 financing facilities

Aug 04

Apollo Commercial: This 11.3% Yielding Mortgage Trust May See A Dividend Cut

Jun 09

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance: Challenges And Prospects

May 17

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:ARI - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/2025184102N/AN/A2
12/31/2024208-144N/AN/A2
9/30/2024161-130181181N/A
6/30/20241767217217N/A
3/31/2024135-112216216N/A
12/31/202328542274274N/A
9/30/2023267-9286286N/A
6/30/2023312128328328N/A
3/31/2023358282328328N/A
12/31/2022321249268268N/A
9/30/2022323290260260N/A
6/30/2022264167178178N/A
3/31/2022292164205205N/A
12/31/2021319207199199N/A
9/30/2021341206216216N/A
6/30/2021344195232232N/A
3/31/2021330188154154N/A
12/31/20201141164164N/A
9/30/202011337198198N/A
6/30/20207816217217N/A
3/31/20207316270270N/A
12/31/2019300208273273N/A
9/30/2019272186233233N/A
6/30/2019310215204204N/A
3/31/2019289207235235N/A
12/31/2018269189266266N/A
9/30/2018276178263263N/A
6/30/2018269179N/A255N/A
3/31/2018261158N/A218N/A
12/31/2017255153N/A155N/A
9/30/2017240169N/A153N/A
6/30/2017222173N/A145N/A
3/31/2017197150N/A131N/A
12/31/2016186125N/A124N/A
9/30/201617597N/A106N/A
6/30/201616160N/A93N/A
3/31/201616279N/A84N/A
12/31/201514390N/A88N/A
9/30/201512789N/A89N/A
6/30/201511583N/A80N/A
3/31/201510683N/A73N/A
12/31/20149775N/A67N/A
9/30/20149069N/A53N/A
6/30/20148262N/A50N/A
3/31/20147550N/A45N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ARI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (2.6%).

Earnings vs Market: ARI is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: ARI is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: ARI's revenue (3.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (8.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ARI's revenue (3.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ARI's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.3%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/31 23:47
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Ross SmotrichBarclays
Derek HewettBofA Global Research
Eric DrayBofA Global Research